Trade Review - EMC - May, 30

Stock Selection Information


  • EMC increases the size of its buyback program to $6B (authorized over three years to December 2015) and says it plans to repurchase $3.5B worth of common stock by the end of FQ2 2014. The company also initiates a quarterly dividend of $0.10/share and says it plans to alter its capital structure to include more debt while still "maintaining a strong investment-grade profile." (PR)




Watch List Reason - News on the stock
Pre-Market Volume - 10%
Trading Plan - To go long above 24.25 - 

Management

Entry Setup used: big seller stepping lower


Trading Comments

Tape reading was the key here. The initial plan was to go long on the stock, but at the open there was a huge seller on the box, offering 1.500.000 shares at 25.05. So I opened a short position in front of him. It did not take long for the trade to develop. At the 24.75 level some buying took place so I closed the position. The initial plan was to just take profits on a 100 shares at this level and hold a core, but I messed up execution. When it spiked up the plan was to add, but since I had closed the position I short it again. When the 24.75 level dropped again, I planned to add to position, but my offer did not get taken. Close it when it stop moving down.
On the way up the 24.92 level was holding prices, but market was moving up and the sellers were not strong to hold prices down. When the bids lift to 24.93 a long position was opened for a scalp, expecting the 25.05 to defend the level, but he was not there anymore.
When it got to the pre-market highs sellers came back I tried a short position but got stopped out on the spike up. Too bad, cause prices drop after that.

Evaluation

My first mistake was to close the position at the 24.75 level. That was not my plan, but I hit the wrong button when executing the trade. I manage to get back in, but failed to add when my offer did not get taken and prices dropped.
Also on the way up, the long position was strong and I should´ve held it when I saw that the seller was not at the 25.05 add to the position.
At the pre-market high i should´ve shorted it again at the 25.23 level. Too bad I did not.
Even with these mistakes, I had the trade under control at all times and it was a very profitable one. 

Daily PM Prep - May, 05

** Preparation for Closing Session **

MARKET CONDITIONS


SPY - Not much has changed from the morning analysis. As expected market continued the up move an tested the 166.50 (166.44 = today´s high so far). This was one of the potential resistance levels pointed in the morning. Mostly likely scenario for this afternoon is the market to remain neutral trading between: 165.75 and 166.50 and respect the short term up channel that is formed. If the 166.50 is broken and market start to hold above, the bias will change to bullish. If it start trading below 165.50 it would be a bearish alert, confirmed by the market making a new low for today with consequences into tomorrow´s session. Not much is expected for this afternoon.

Long Term Bias: Neutral
Short Term Bias: Neutral Bullish
Accuracy: 100%

PM Stock Selection Sheet download 
Updated at 13:20


Want more information about the Stock Selection Sheet?
Legends - Click me
Read this before using the information provided in this page:
1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk. 2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The afternoon sheet will be updated between 13:00 and 14:00

Daily AM Prep - May, 30

** Preparation for Morning Session**

MARKET CONDITIONS

World Markets News: Asian markets finished broadly lower today with shares in Japan leading the region.European markets are mixed. To be released before market opens: GDP (QoQ) and Initial Jobless Claims.

Economic Calendar


SPY - Yesterday in the afternoon market broke a short term down trend inside this longer term range that is in formation, because of that our short term bias is bullish. This up move may find resistance at one of the following levels: 165.50, 166.50, 167.50 or 169.00 and could provide a clearer view of the range. Also this up move may define the type of day we will have today.
The 164.00 level is still a key level. If we break below this level, a confirmation of a Lower High suggests a more bearish formation for the overall market. At this point, since on a weekly chart we are up trending, this scenario is less likely.

Long Term Bias: Neutral
Short Term Bias: Neutral to Bullish
Accuracy: 100%

AM Stock Selection Sheet download
Updated at 8:15


Want more information about the Stock Selection Sheet?
Legends - Click me
Read this before using the information provided in this page:
1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk.2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The morning sheet will be updated between 8:00 and 9:00

Trade Review - SFD - May, 29

Stock Selection Information


  • Heard during Smithfield Foods' (SFD) conference call: Execs say the sale to a Chinese company is "good news" for the pork industry as a major U.S.-based food company ties in with an extensive Chinese distribution network. They also note Shuanghui sells in other major Asian markets such as Japan and Korea. Both CEOs reiterated that Smithfield's business and operations will remain largely the same. (webcast)
  • More on the Smithfield Foods (SFD) acquisition: Under the seemingly generous terms of its deal to be acquired by Shuanghui International, no Smithfield facilities or locations will be closed and the existing management team will remain in place. The board indicates it expects resistance from U.S. regulators and has a breakup fee embedded as part of the deal - but with pork products flowing from the U.S. to China - (instead of the reverse) - landing approval may be easier than in prior U.S.-China mergers. SFD +25.1% to $32.49, 4.6% below the deal price.
  • Smithfield Foods (SFD) confirms it sold itself to Shuanghui International for $34 per share in a deal valued at $7.1B. The transaction is slated to close in the second half of 2013 after regulators weigh in. SFD +25.9% premarket to $32.70.
  • UPDATE: Shuanghui Intl., Smithfield Foods Agrees to Combination, SFD Holders Will Receive $34/Share in Cash
  • Smithfield Foods (SFD) is close to selling itself to China's Shineway, according to a WSJ report. A deal would land in the $4.5B to $5B range to mark a 25% to 30% premium over Smithfield's closing yesterday. SFD +23.2% premarket to $31.99.


Watch List Reason - Had relevant news in the morning, big gap up and great pre-market volume
Pre-Market Volume - 320%
Trading Plan - To go long above 27.00

Management

Entry Setup used: Many different entries.


Trading Comments

Tape reading was extremely useful today with this stock. It was clear that there was a very strong buyer at the stock. From time to time we could see prints greater or equal a 1500 done at the bid, and prices would just not drop. That gave me a lot of confidence to trade the stock in the morning. First half hour I don´t care about about what the market is doing, after that it confirmed that would try to move higher, which also helped the confidence in the up move. So I was building a position around and had a good position when above the up trend line. I was expecting it to explode at some point due to the amount of volume the buyers were taking, which never happened when I was positioned. When it broke the up trend and the 32.58 buyer dropped I closed the position with some profit.

Evaluation

I did a great job in sizing up and building the position at the stock. My trading plan was good and I executed it correctly, the trade just did not worked as expected. I was in control of my risk and adding / taking profits as the stock was moving up, manage to have a very strong position with a very good price on the stock.
Tape reading was critical to this trade cause I could see the buying pressure on the stock.
I also manage to be positive on the stock and for future trades, if I am able to execute as well as I did today, I am sure it will pay off big time.
Note: in the afternoon the stock move a 1.25 on an explosive move, probably because of the amount of buyer it had in the morning.

Daily PM Prep - May, 29

** Preparation for Closing Session **

MARKET CONDITIONS



SPY - Tried to move higher in the morning, but respected the trend down (short term). The key level is still the 164.00. If we break below 164.50 the down move will continue, but this is likely to happen only tomorrow. The most likely scenario is the market to stay between 165.75 and 164.50 today.
Long Term Bias: Neutral
Short Term Bias: Neutral to Bearish
Accuracy: 

PM Stock Selection Sheet download
Updated at 13:40


Want more information about the Stock Selection Sheet?
Legends - Click me
Read this before using the information provided in this page:
1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk. 2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The afternoon sheet will be updated between 13:00 and 14:00

Daily AM Prep - May, 29

** Preparation for Morning Session**

MARKET CONDITIONS

World Markets News: Asian markets finished mixed as of the most recent closing prices. European markets are sharply lower today with shares in Germany off the most (-1.73%). Since Germany is the strongest economy of the euro region, this move down should be considered into the open today.

Economic Calendar



SPY - Sellers are present and holding prices on the past 4 days. We tried to move higher into a range yesterday, but that movement was stopped by sellers. If the 164.00 level is taken out, we will have a Lower High, confirming the sellers are stronger than the buyers. This is the key level for today, but it must hold below this level (not this test it). Considering that Europe Indexes are all red and Germany is leading the region, this is the mostly likely scenario. The other possible scenario is a more neutral one, that trade will be conducted between 165.50 and 164.00. For a bullish bias to come in, yesterday´s high need to be broken up.

Long Term Bias: Neutral
Short Term Bias: Bearish
Accuracy:

AM Stock Selection Sheet download
Updated at 8:10


Want more information about the Stock Selection Sheet?
Legends - Click me
Read this before using the information provided in this page:
1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk.2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The morning sheet will be updated between 8:00 and 9:00

Trade Review - MRK - May, 28

Stock Selection Information


  • UPDATE: Jefferies Upgrades Merck to Buy, Raises PT Following SOTP Analysis
  • Three Big Pharma upgrades: Jefferies takes Merck (MRK) and Bayer (BAYRY.PK) to Buy from Hold and Deutsche Bank lifts GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) to Buy from Hold.



Watch List Reason - Stock got upgraded from hold to buy
Pre-Market Volume - N/A
Trading Plan - To go long above 48.00. 

Management

Entry Setup used: Long above resistance


Trading Comments

Reading the tape help a lot on this stock today. First the bids were being hit and price was not dropping. When it moved above 48.00, it was my entry signal confirmed by what I saw on the tape. Later the 48.30 level started to work as a resistance. When it broke above, it became by adding entry signal. Finally when it start to show that the sellers were hold prices, I hold out. 

Evaluation

I did not followed exactly what I had planned, closing my position before I wanted. My exits on the stock were not good. I could´ve taken a little bit more hit and get out at better prices. Still it was a good reading of the market, when I realized there was not much momentum, turning the positions into a holding one. Overall I was glad with the way I traded it.

Daily PM Prep - May, 28

** Preparation for Closing Session **

MARKET CONDITIONS


SPY - Today I will be not using the up trend line / channel as a reference anymore, because market has start a new stage. This do not mean it can not move higher, only that the most recent price action suggests the market it moving into a different stage and it is no long in trend. If you look to the weekly chart yes, market is still trending up, but on a daily time frame it found sellers at the 169.00 and it is forming a new range. between 169.00 and 164.00. This are the main reference points for me now. The point of control from this move is the 166.50 and where market is trading now. If breaks these extremes we have to re-evaluate. For today it is expected a neutral day. Market may even make a new low, but the slow action today suggests it will trade around the 166.50 level. If we start to hold below 165.50 then we become for bearish for the day.

Long Term Bias: Neutral Bullish
Short Term Bias: Neutral
Accuracy: 100%

PM Stock Selection Sheet download
Updated at 12:30


Want more information about the Stock Selection Sheet?
Legends - Click me
Read this before using the information provided in this page:
1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk. 2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The afternoon sheet will be updated between 13:00 and 14:00

Daily AM Prep - May, 28

** Preparation for Morning Session**

MARKET CONDITIONS

World Markets News: Asian markets closed sharply higher today with shares in China leading the region. European markets are sharply higher today with shares in London leading the region. 

Economic Calendar


SPY - Markets around the world are green, after a holiday yesterday. Last week market made and inside day, that is breaking up today. If we stay above 166.00, there a good chance that we will test the 168.50 / 169.00 resistance again. If it does, we have to watch how it behaves around this level e re-evaluate. If market decides to turn back down, below 166.00, on a shorter-time frame it would be considered a failed break up, that could lead to a larger drop in prices below 164.00. A potential range is being formed between 169.00 and 164.00.

Long Term Bias: Neutral Bullish
Short Term Bias: Bullish 

Accuracy: 100%

AM Stock Selection Sheet download - not much going on so far. Watch to see if there is a good pre-market move in any other stocks.
Updated at 7:55


Want more information about the Stock Selection Sheet?
Legends - Click me
Read this before using the information provided in this page:
1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk.2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The morning sheet will be updated between 8:00 and 9:00

Daily PM Prep - May, 24

** Preparation for Closing Session **

MARKET CONDITIONS



SPY - Not much had changed from the morning preparation comment. The most expected scenario so far has happened, with the SPY trading in an inside day. It tried to go lower, but buyers held the prices, keeping the trading between the 165.50 / 166.00 levels and 164.00. This is likely to continue, till the end of this session.
Long Term Bias: Neutral
Short Term Bias: Neutral
Accuracy: 

PM Stock Selection Sheet download - going to be a very slow afternoon. Morning was the best time to trade today. Fewer opportunities in the afternoon.
Updated at 12:40


Want more information about the Stock Selection Sheet?
Legends - Click me
Read this before using the information provided in this page:
1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk. 2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The afternoon sheet will be updated between 13:00 and 14:00

Daily AM Prep - May, 24

** Preparation for Morning Session**

MARKET CONDITIONS

World Markets News: Asian markets finished mixed as of the most recent closing prices.European markets are lower today with shares in Germany off the most. Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) to be released before market opens.

Economic Calendar


SPY - Yesterday market gap open down, but bounce up. Today another gap down, opening at the potential point of control (POC). This gap down suggest a selling pressure. Markets around the world are not strong, so on a short term bias, we are bearish. If the 164.00 / 163.75 level is dropped and market starts to hold below this level, the bearish sentiment is confirmed. If we stay inside yesterday´s range, as the market is now, a more neutral scenario comes to mind, with prices trading around the POC for the day. Since it is Friday, this is the most expected scenario.
Yesterday´s high and important intraday resistance for today also. If we break above 166.00 and hold buyers might test seller at the highs. This scenario would be more probable if there was an unfair low formed at the 164.00 level (which is not the case), but if this happens could affect our long term bias.

Long Term Bias: Neutral
Short Term Bias: Neutral to Bullish
Accuracy: 100%

AM Stock Selection Sheet download - A lot of good trading ideas for today. Set up alerts and focus on just a few stocks
Updated at 8:30


Want more information about the Stock Selection Sheet?
Legends - Click me
Read this before using the information provided in this page:
1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk.2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The morning sheet will be updated between 8:00 and 9:00

Trade Review - HPQ - May, 23


Stock Selection Information



  • The broad selloff isn't touching H-P ([[HPQ]] +14.2%) following last night's earnings. Jefferies' Peter Misek weighs in with an upgrade from Sell to Hold. He praises H-P for having the discipline to sacrifice PC market share to retain profitability (unlike [[DELL]]; Whitman (transcript): "Maybe that's what you do when you're about to go private.") Misek also likes the cash flow guidance of $7.5B - "(it) materially changed our view of H-P margin, cash flow, and EPS prospects."
  • Stocks Hitting 52-Week Highs
  • UPDATE: J.P. Morgan Reiterates Neutral Rating, Raises PT on Hewlett-Packard Company on Expected Upward Trends
  • Benzinga's Top Pre-Market Gainers



Watch List Reason - Earnings released yesterday after the close
Pre-Market Volume - 15.5%
Trading Plan - Go long at support: 23.75 or 23.50 || Go long above resistance at 21.25

Management

Entry Setup used: Momentum plays on both trades



Trading Comments

After a strong down move yesterday on the SPY, a bounce up was a possible scenario. HPQ had it´s earning released yesterday with a strong up reaction to it.
Today, at pre-market, it was trading in yesterday´s after-hours range. The possible supports were 23.75 or 23.50. When it open around 23.00, the bids were being hit, but price was not drop. Tape reading skill paying off this time again. Got it at 23.02 (after 2 stops) and the position develop. Momentum play to the upside. It slowed down around 23.30s and when it dropped I got out at 23.28.
It start to consolidate, and when it broke the consolidation up, another momentum play: got in at 23.49. This positions was held to 23.75. 

Evaluation

The first 2 stops were very small losses, but this is part of the game. When the positions start to work I made my money back. It was one of my goals for today to get back in stock after a winning trade. HPQ provide me an opportunity, that I took, but still can improve on this skill. After 10:00 there was a break I could´ve built my position, since it was trending up.

Daily PM Prep - April, 09

** Preparation for Closing Session **

MARKET CONDITIONS



SPY -  Market opened on a gap down move, but failed to go lower. The potential point of control at 164.50 held the down movement. The next resistance to the up move is the lower band of the up channel that was broken down, then the 166.25 level, where the market may find sellers again. If we close back inside the up channel, market may test the most recent daily high. If it does close below the lower band of the channel, we must watch closely how it is going to behave at the 164.50 level. On a longer term, we expect a range to be formed before the market, just need to find the levels of this range on the next couple days.
Long Term Bias: Neutral
Short Term Bias: Neutral Bullish
Accuracy: 85%

PM Stock Selection Sheet download - don´t like what I see. Most stocks will look like this: VWAP is up (suggesting long), but price is at a resistance and breaking down the up trend estabilished with this market bouce up (suggesting a short). I will focus in just a few stocks.
Updated at 13:00


Want more information about the Stock Selection Sheet?
Legends - Click me
Read this before using the information provided in this page:
1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk. 2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The afternoon sheet will be updated between 13:00 and 14:00

Daily AM Prep - May, 23

** Preparation for Morning Session**

MARKET CONDITIONS

World Markets News: Asian markets finished sharply lower today with shares in Japan leading the region. European markets are sharply lower today with shares in Germany off the most. This is a very relevant move down. Be aware of the following indexes to be release:
  • 08:30 - Initial Jobless Claims
  • 10:00 - New Home Sales
  • 15:30 - ECB President Draghi Speaks   
Economic Calendar


SPY - Yesterday market made an unfair high, suggesting the long term sellers are back in the game. World markets are all down on significant moves. Today we are opening below the lower band of the up channel and at the potential Point of Control. Based on this information the short term bias is bearish until we find buyers and define a more clear support. On a long term bias, if we close below the lower band of the up channel, before going bearish, it is likely that the market goes into some type of range or consolidation. Since not enough volume was done pre-market, this open below the channel still means nothing for a longer term evaluation. There is also the possibility of the market making his way back inside the channel.

Long Term Bias: Neutral
Short Term Bias: Bearish 
Accuracy:75%

AM Stock Selection Sheet download
Updated at 8:00


Want more information about the Stock Selection Sheet?
Legends - Click me
Read this before using the information provided in this page:
1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk.2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The morning sheet will be updated between 8:00 and 9:00

Trader Tools - Trading Journal - Trading Account

Continuing with the series of articles talking about the different types of journals a trader must have, today it is about the Trading Account journal.
This is a very simple journal that has the following information:


  • Date - just as a reference
  • Gross P/L - This is the gross profit or loss of a give day
  • Net P/L - This is the Gross P/L minus the trading costs
  • Volume - Volume traded in a given day
  • Number of stocks traded - this is the number of stocks I traded during the trading day
  • Number of gross positive stocks - this is the number of stocks that I ended gross positive in a day
  • Best and Worst Stock - here I keep the best and worst stock I traded during the day
  • Ticket Average - The ticket average 
  • Number of trades
  • Number of positive trades 
  • Number of positive trades that had a gross profit greater than .10 cents (big winners)
  • Number of negative trades that had a gross profit smaller than .15 cents (big losers)
  • Morning ticket average
  • Mid-day ticket average
  • Closing ticket average
  • Liquidity Added - this was recently add cause I want to improve my adding liquidity skills
With the following information you can find patterns in your trading, for example:
  • Are you more profitable in the morning or the afternoon? If afternoon is the time you trade better, then your risk should be greater at this time of the day
  • Do you trade better if you trade a lot of stocks or if you trade just one or two?
  • Does your money come from big winners or a lot of small winners?

Trade Review - BMY - May, 22


Stock Selection Information


Benzinga's Top Upgrades
Citi upgrades Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) to Buy from Neutral and raises its price target to $55 from $33 saying the company's "very broad checkpoint agent [is] positioned to capture a very significant share of an emergent $24 billion checkpoint agent market." Citi also hikes its FY17 EPS forecast by 31%.




Watch List Reason - Upgraded from Neutral to Buy
Pre-Market Volume - under 3%
Trading Plan - To go long above 45.50

Management

Entry Setup used: Open drive flag pattern


Trading Comments

Tape reading helped on entry, were I identified a seller around 45.65. It lift price once, but fail to continue, so I closed position. Then it lifted again, but this time it did not fail. Also the 46.18 level is were sellers start to hold.
The re-entry level was 45.75. There was a big buyer spotted at that level in the tape.

Evaluation

It was a good trade, but I made a mistake on execution when I did not get out at 46.05. My order was ready, but I did not have my screen correct selected. When I hit enter, it did not send the order. Still I manage to get out at 45.96.
Also I must learn to get back in. After closing a successful trade, must fine the stop where I would get back in again. 

Daily PM Prep - May, 22

** Preparation for Closing Session **

MARKET CONDITIONS



SPY - The short-term range we talked about in the morning preparation was broken up, suggesting the continuation of the up movement. The target for this break was the projection of the range to the upside (reached today). Unfortunatelly the sellers came back strong at the 169.00 level, taking prices very fast down. This may be the presence of long term sellers at this level. Up move now is likely to continue if the 169.00 is broken and prices start to hold above that level. There are some a potential ranges forming at the following prices for short term reference:
1-) 169.00 || 167.75
2-) 169.00 || 166.50
Closing prices above 167.75 would be good for the buyers.
Long Term Bias: Bullish
Short Term Bias: Neutral 
Accuracy: 

PM Stock Selection Sheet download
Updated at 13:15


Want more information about the Stock Selection Sheet?
Legends - Click me
Read this before using the information provided in this page:
1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk. 2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The afternoon sheet will be updated between 13:00 and 14:00

Daily AM Prep - May, 22

** Preparation for Morning Session**

MARKET CONDITIONS

World Markets News: Asian markets finished mixed as of the most recent closing prices.European markets are lower today with shares in France off the most. Be aware of the following:
  • 10:00 - Existing Home Sales  
  • 10:00 - Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies
  • 14:00 - FOMC Meeting Minutes
Economic Calendar


SPY - On a long term prospective we are bullish until the channel is broken to the down side. There is a potential point of control at 163.75, that is also a support zone. On a shorter time frame a smaller range was formed. This range had an unfair high at 167.75 yesterday.  It tried to break above and fail, confirming the presence of sellers at this level. Since on a long term we are trending up, the most likely scenario is for the market to break up this short term range, but it is also possible for it to break down this range and test the base of the up channel. The neutral bias will change depending on which side the market breaks this short term range.

Long Term Bias: Bullish
Short Term Bias: Neutral
Accuracy: 100%

AM Stock Selection Sheet download
Updated at 8:00


Want more information about the Stock Selection Sheet?
Legends - Click me
Read this before using the information provided in this page:
1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk.2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The morning sheet will be updated between 8:00 and 9:00

Daily PM Prep - May, 21

** Preparation for Closing Session **

MARKET CONDITIONS



SPY - This is my market summary: it is in an up channel on a daily/60 chart, after breaking the range between 160.00 || 153.50. The target for this move was 166.50 and it is trading a little bit above this level at 167.50. This level was tested this morning again, where sellers start to defend the position. Volatility increased, confirming that the sellers are holding the level. On a 5 minute chart we can see a clear range between 167.50 and  166.50. This is above the target area. The mostly likely scenario today is for the market to  trade around this 5 minute range. The break of this range will determine which side the market will go next. Keep in mind that a fake break to either side is also possible.
Long Term Bias: Bullish
Short Term Bias: Neutral
Accuracy: 85%

PM Stock Selection Sheet download - in the morning market rewarded short trades.
Updated at 12:45


Want more information about the Stock Selection Sheet?
Legends - Click me
Read this before using the information provided in this page:
1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk. 2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The afternoon sheet will be updated between 13:00 and 14:00

Daily AM Prep - May, 21

** Preparation for Morning Session**

MARKET CONDITIONS

World Markets News: Asian markets finished mixed as of the most recent closing prices. European markets are mixed. 

Economic Calendar



SPY - Will the expected correction come today? World markets are mixed, so there is a greater chance for that to happen today. No big news to be released. So here are the possibilities I see:
1 - Market making a new high and continue the up move.
2 - Market making a sideways move as it did between 05/08 and 05/13 - this would be still a bullish consolidation, since we are still in the up channel
3 - Market makes a stronger move down, testing the base of the channel at 165.00 / 164.50
Due to it´s strong behavior lately, I believe the 2 scenario is the most likely to happen today, and will be the expected one.
A bearish bias will only come if the up channel is broken down and it hold below it
Bias: Neutral Bullish
Accuracy: 80%

AM Stock Selection Sheet download
Updated at 8:00


Want more information about the Stock Selection Sheet?
Legends - Click me
Read this before using the information provided in this page:
1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk.2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The morning sheet will be updated between 8:00 and 9:00

Trade Review - WCRX - May, 20

Stock Selection Information

Actavis to Acquire Warner Chilcott in $8.5B Transaction; Price is $20.08 per Share



Watch List Reason - Relevant news on the stock. 
Pre-Market Volume - 15%
Trading Plan - To go long above 19.50

Management

Entry Setup used: Consolidation above support


Trading Comments

The stock gap higher and sold off right before the market opened. When the down trend was broke, and stock start to consolidate at the 19.50 level we started looking for long entries.
The tape reading skill was fundamental for this trade. There was a fight between the 19.50 seller and the 19.48 buyer. Every time it drops the 19.48, immediately we could see the buyer stepping up again. As soon as the 19.50 seller was done, prices moved up.
The plan was to add to the position as soon as the 19.59 offer appeared and so I did. 

Evaluation

It took me a couple of stops to get the right time of the trade, but that´s just how things work. The plan was to get in at the consolidation, cause as soon as the seller was done price would move fast up (as it did). Did a good job there.
Adding to the position as it start to work was a great thing, cause it allowed me to control my risk pretty well. I followed my plan to take profits fast and to close the position at 19.80 but I must adjust this plan. The correct response would be to take profit at 19.75 and to hold the core for the final target at 20.00. I did not believe it would get there, but it did.
Even with the mistakes it was a great trade.

Daily PM Prep - May, 20

** Preparation for Closing Session **

MARKET CONDITIONS



SPY - Market is stronger than expected. It tried to get back below 166.50, but buyers refused to let sellers take control, so up move is likely to continue. The up channel is the main reference we have now. As long as the market is inside it, buyers are in control and in a strong up trend.
Bias: Bullish
Accuracy: 75%

PM Stock Selection Sheet download - lots of names to choose from. Set up alerts.
Updated at 12:55


Want more information about the Stock Selection Sheet?
Legends - Click me
Read this before using the information provided in this page:
1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk. 2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The afternoon sheet will be updated between 13:00 and 14:00

Daily AM Prep - May, 20

** Preparation for Morning Session**

MARKET CONDITIONS

World Markets News: Asian markets finished broadly higher today with shares in Hong Kong leading the region. European markets are mixed today. Holidays in Canada, Norway, Switzerland

Economic Calendar



SPY - Last week market tested the 166.50 level, which was the target level for this up move. At friday´s close, it broke above this potential resistance. The question today is: will it hold above or come back bellow 166.50. If it can hold above, up move is likely to continue. I believe that a consolidation or a pull back to the bottom of the up channel would be healthy, so this is what I´d like to see, but market seems to want to continue higher. 167.00 is the resistance for today. Supports at 166.50 / 165.50. The bearish bias only if breaks down the up channel.
Bias: Neutral bullish
Accuracy: 50%

AM Stock Selection Sheet download
Updated at 8:00


Want more information about the Stock Selection Sheet?
Legends - Click me
Read this before using the information provided in this page:
1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk.2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The morning sheet will be updated between 8:00 and 9:00

Daily PM Prep - May, 17


** Preparation for Closing Session **

MARKET CONDITIONS


SPY - No big changes from the morning session. Market is neutral as expected. Just review morning comments cause the idea is the same.
Bias: Neutral
Accuracy: 50% - market broke the top of the range and target.

PM Stock Selection Sheet download - not much going on. Trade lighter today.
Updated at 13:30


Want more information about the Stock Selection Sheet?
Legends - Click me
Read this before using the information provided in this page:
1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk. 2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The afternoon sheet will be updated between 13:00 and 14:00

Daily AM Prep - May, 17

** Preparation for Morning Session**

MARKET CONDITIONS

World Markets News: Asian markets finished broadly higher today with shares in China leading the region. European markets are higher today with shares in London leading the region. Germany is neutral, but China closed strong.

Economic Calendar



SPY - Yesterday market did not move much and today I do not expect big moves either. My expectation is a sideways market trading between 166.45 and 165 / 164 zone. The break above 166.50 is possible, but I do not believe it will happen today. A consolidation around this area would bring more conviction to this break up. An intraday bearish sentiment (in a long term bullish market) could happen if we break down below 164.50. The target for this down move is the potential point of control at 163.25 and the base of the up channel.
Bias: Neutral
Accuracy:

AM Stock Selection Sheet download - not much going on today. Best ideas selected and analysed.
Updated at 8:30


Want more information about the Stock Selection Sheet?
Legends - Click me
Read this before using the information provided in this page:
1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk.2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The morning sheet will be updated between 8:00 and 9:00

Trade Review - CSCO - May, 16


Stock Selection Information


Cisco (CSCO) is now up 9.4% premarket following last night's earnings and guidance. Lazard's Ryan Hitchinson notes guidance was light, but likely beat a lot of the whispers out there. He also believes management is remaining conservative amid improving demand trends. A bellwether no more, Cisco's moonshot is having little effect on the [[QQQ]]s, which are barely green at the moment.




Watch List Reason - pre-market mover. Not in trading idea sheet. Added after 9:00
Pre-Market Volume - 38.39%
Trading Plan - To go long above 22.00

Management

Entry Setup used: Fail to break down support.


Trading Comments

Tape reading helped a lot to get in at this trade. At the level the bids were being hit and there was a lot of volume done, but the prices were not dropping. Bids were holding and a lot of buying. So I got long at 23.48.
When it broke above the 23.50 level momentum up was strong. Around 23.75 momentum start to dry of, also identified from the tape, so I closed the position.

Evaluation

It was a great trade and very well executed. I did not see other reasons to get in after that and do not regret the exit. First 30 minutes of the day is for momentum trades. When momentum is done (the reason why I got in the trade), I must exit.
I could´ve added to the position when it broke above .50 level. This is the only thing I need to learn how to do in this momentum based strategies. To go "all-in" cause usually they are good trades. In that scenario holding some stocks for next up leg momentum might be possible. 

Daily PM Prep - May, 16

** Preparation for Closing Session **

MARKET CONDITIONS



SPY - No changes from morning overview. Market is neutral on a sideways move. The smaller range is the trading range expected for today: 166.50 and 164.50. There is one intermediary support at 165.50.
Bias: Neutral Bullish
Accuracy: 80%

PM Stock Selection Sheet download - market is slow today. Take on the best trade setups.
Updated at 13:40


Want more information about the Stock Selection Sheet?
Legends - Click me
Read this before using the information provided in this page:
1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk. 2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The afternoon sheet will be updated between 13:00 and 14:00

Daily AM Prep - May, 16

** Preparation for Morning Session**

MARKET CONDITIONS

World Markets News: Asian markets finished mixed as of the most recent closing prices. European markets are mixed today. Core CPI, CPI and Initial Jobless Claims to be released before market opens. Since market is strong, bad numbers should not affect it that much. 

Economic Calendar



SPY - The target for the up move from the break of the previous range has been tested and sellers held. If big volume come in, breaks above and hold, market is very bullish. I believe prices today will be neutral, trading around 166.5 and 164.50. Next couple days we will test the 163.25 area and the point of control. This would be healthy for the market. The only bearish signal is the break down of the bottom of the long term up channel and this move probably will turn into a sideways market before turn bearish.
Bias: Neutral Bullish
Accuracy: 100%

AM Stock Selection Sheet download - not too many stocks to watch to day. Market is likely to be slow.
Updated at 8:15


Want more information about the Stock Selection Sheet?
Legends - Click me
Read this before using the information provided in this page:
1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk.2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The morning sheet will be updated between 8:00 and 9:00

Trade Review - M - May, 15


Stock Selection Information


Macy’s (M) declares $0.25/share quarterly dividend, 25% increase from prior dividend of $0.20. Forward yield 2.11%. For shareholders of record June 14. Payable July 01. Ex-div date June 12. The board increased share repurchase authorization by $1.5B, bringing the total share repurchase program to approx. $2.6B as of 04 May. (PR)

Macy's (M): Q1 EPS of $0.55 beats by $0.02. Revenue of $6.39B (+4% Y/Y) in-line. (PR)




Watch List Reason - Earnings before the open
Pre-Market Volume - 6.56%
Trading Plan - To go long on a break up above 48.00 or to go long at a support level at 47.00

Management

Entry Setup used: Pre-market range break up | Pre-Market range fail break


Trading Comments

First trade was taken and it was a good entry. As the market was correcting and most stocks were failing to break pre-market range, this stock was hold. And there were buyers taking the offers, but the trade was stopped out.
Second trade was a really bad one. My plan was to go long if it break above the 48.80 level, but it never did. My anticipation cost me money. When it failed, I believe it would not continue the up move and soon would follow the market. So I shorted it on a failed break, but at a bad price. Should offer it around 48.70.
As it started working, I was concerned with taking the profit but had my target at 47.01, but I decided not to wait for it an closed the position. Tape reading helped me to get out of the position and to see it was hold the level in the open.

Evaluation

I don´t think it was a great trade, but it worked. My entries were not all good ones, mainly the second entry when I tried to anticipate the market, but it helped me see the stock was no longer strong.
Last exit should´ve been at my target and not to take profits. This was my plan. I must correct this and improve my morning sessions,cause I am not being very efficient at them. 

Trader Tools - Trading Journal - Psychology Trader Journal

The second journal I will talk about is the Psychology Trader Journal. This is one of the most important journals to have and if you are a discretionary trader, it is a MUST HAVE. A trader can be compared to a high performing athlete, where you are responsible for your own results. The more you practice, the better you get (or the more profitable you are). So this journal it is like a trading coach. It tells you what to do so you can get better. What should you practice? What skills should you develop?

The first session is the strategic part of it and is is done before the market open. It has two parts:

  • Goals for the day - these are the goals I am trying to complete by the end of the day. 
  • Risk Management - how I am going to control my risk during trading hours. If I stay way on vacation or if I did not trade yesterday, I lower my risk parameters. During earning season, I increase my risk parameters. 
Next session of the journal is updated after each trading session: the morning session and afternoon session.
  • AM / PM Mental State - describe how I felt during the trading session. Confidence level, sleepiness, boredom, anything that goes through my mind.
  • AM / PM Trading Session - describe how was the trading session and how well did I trade it with a small review of the traded stocks. 

  

After the market is over, I start updating next sessions:

Today Summary

  • Trading Summary (Describe the day) - complete description of how was the market today and how well did I trade it.
  • Trade of the Day / Playbook - best trade of the day. Usually the most profitable, but not always. Could also be the best executed. This trade will be reviewed again in the blog.
  • Worst Trade of the Day - write down and review your bad trades. Find your mistakes in the trade. Think that every mistake is a lesson that you paid the market to teach you. If you learn nothing from it, trading will be very expensive for you and you most likely will fail.
  • Risk Management Review -  review of how did you controlled risk, rules you broke or trades you were not in control.
  • Also take note (other trades or relevant info) - this is the "others" were I write any other thing I find relevant.





Learning Experience

  • Did Well Today - I write down the things I did well today. Recognize my strength and try to repeat them next trading session. 
  • Could´ve done better - things that need to be improved. You can always turn this into goals for next day. By improving the things here you will become a better trade. A trader must be humble or he will fail. Most people have trouble accepting their failures and it is hard. Turn them into lessons. 
  • Things you learned today - new things you learned today. It could be about the market, about trading, about yourself, it does not matter. How are you better today, than you were yesterday? 

Goals Evaluation
  • Daily Goals Evaluation - did you manage to achieve your goals for the day? What lessons did you take from it?
  • Weekly Goals / Evaluation - did you manage to achieve your goals for the week? What lessons did you take from it?
  • Monthly Goals / Evaluation - did you manage to achieve your goals for the month? What lessons did you take from it?


This journal help me practice my trades. By reviewing them you learn from them and improve into next trade, just as a high performing athlete. Repetition is the key. This is why preparation is more important than the actual trading itself. Mistakes will be made, and it is a part of trading. Learning nothing from it, that is preparing yourself to fail.
Also keep in mind that this is my template for the journal. From time to time I change the journal to adjust it for my trading needs. You must feel comfortable when you are writing and reviewing, so create it based on your personal or trading needs.

Go back to the introduction about journals, click here.

Daily PM Prep - May, 15


** Preparation for Closing Session **

MARKET CONDITIONS



SPY - Market is reaching the target of the up move with an interesting setup. It just broke the long term channel and now has up momentum where I see two possibilities:
1-) Fake break up - sellers will step in at the target zone and hold prices. Then we most likely will re-test the POC (see picture) of a potential new range.
2-) Good break up - the target zone will not hold prices, and this change on the angle of the channel will continue till it find sellers much higher. This means the market is very very bullish.
The first scenario is the one I think has more chance of happening because of the time the break up occurred ,the volume it had and there is a potential divergence of momentum in the 60 minute chart. So, the bias is neutral to bullish on the longer time frame. On a shorter time frame a bearish sentiment may come if the shorter up channel is broken down. The longer time frame will only go bearish if we lose the 163.25 zone.
Bias: Neutral bullish
Accuracy: 100%

PM Stock Selection Sheet download - first 20 names I´ll be looking to trade.
Updated at 13:40


Want more information about the Stock Selection Sheet?
Legends - Click me
Read this before using the information provided in this page:
1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk. 2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The afternoon sheet will be updated between 13:00 and 14:00

Daily AM Prep - May, 15

** Preparation for Morning Session**

MARKET CONDITIONS

World Markets News: Asian markets finished broadly higher today with shares in Japan leading the region. European markets are higher today with shares in France leading the region. 

Economic Calendar



SPY - Market has been in trend for a couple days. The range that was broken had an amplitude of 6.5 points (160 - 153.50). The target for the up move is the range extended, so 160 + 6.5 = 166.50. We are getting closer to that level. This does not mean the market will stop there, but we can consider that some people will take profits around this area. From the up move of the past few days, we can see that the market worked it´s way up on the upper band of this channel, on a slow move, and so far there is no reason to think it would change this pattern. Some correction/profit taking is expected on a short time frame, but the bearish sign only if brakes down the up channel. This brake would most likely put the market back into a range mode before going bearish.
Bias: Bullish to Neutral
Accuracy: 80%

AM Stock Selection Sheet download - if market moves to the upside there are some good trades to be made.
Updated at 8:35


Want more information about the Stock Selection Sheet?
Legends - Click me
Read this before using the information provided in this page:
1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk.2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The morning sheet will be updated between 8:00 and 9:00