Trade Review - HPQ - May, 23


Stock Selection Information



  • The broad selloff isn't touching H-P ([[HPQ]] +14.2%) following last night's earnings. Jefferies' Peter Misek weighs in with an upgrade from Sell to Hold. He praises H-P for having the discipline to sacrifice PC market share to retain profitability (unlike [[DELL]]; Whitman (transcript): "Maybe that's what you do when you're about to go private.") Misek also likes the cash flow guidance of $7.5B - "(it) materially changed our view of H-P margin, cash flow, and EPS prospects."
  • Stocks Hitting 52-Week Highs
  • UPDATE: J.P. Morgan Reiterates Neutral Rating, Raises PT on Hewlett-Packard Company on Expected Upward Trends
  • Benzinga's Top Pre-Market Gainers



Watch List Reason - Earnings released yesterday after the close
Pre-Market Volume - 15.5%
Trading Plan - Go long at support: 23.75 or 23.50 || Go long above resistance at 21.25

Management

Entry Setup used: Momentum plays on both trades



Trading Comments

After a strong down move yesterday on the SPY, a bounce up was a possible scenario. HPQ had it´s earning released yesterday with a strong up reaction to it.
Today, at pre-market, it was trading in yesterday´s after-hours range. The possible supports were 23.75 or 23.50. When it open around 23.00, the bids were being hit, but price was not drop. Tape reading skill paying off this time again. Got it at 23.02 (after 2 stops) and the position develop. Momentum play to the upside. It slowed down around 23.30s and when it dropped I got out at 23.28.
It start to consolidate, and when it broke the consolidation up, another momentum play: got in at 23.49. This positions was held to 23.75. 

Evaluation

The first 2 stops were very small losses, but this is part of the game. When the positions start to work I made my money back. It was one of my goals for today to get back in stock after a winning trade. HPQ provide me an opportunity, that I took, but still can improve on this skill. After 10:00 there was a break I could´ve built my position, since it was trending up.
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Daily PM Prep - April, 09

** Preparation for Closing Session **

MARKET CONDITIONS



SPY -  Market opened on a gap down move, but failed to go lower. The potential point of control at 164.50 held the down movement. The next resistance to the up move is the lower band of the up channel that was broken down, then the 166.25 level, where the market may find sellers again. If we close back inside the up channel, market may test the most recent daily high. If it does close below the lower band of the channel, we must watch closely how it is going to behave at the 164.50 level. On a longer term, we expect a range to be formed before the market, just need to find the levels of this range on the next couple days.
Long Term Bias: Neutral
Short Term Bias: Neutral Bullish
Accuracy: 85%

PM Stock Selection Sheet download - don´t like what I see. Most stocks will look like this: VWAP is up (suggesting long), but price is at a resistance and breaking down the up trend estabilished with this market bouce up (suggesting a short). I will focus in just a few stocks.
Updated at 13:00

Want more information about the Stock Selection Sheet?
Legends - Click me
Read this before using the information provided in this page:
1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk. 2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The afternoon sheet will be updated between 13:00 and 14:00
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Daily AM Prep - May, 23

** Preparation for Morning Session**

MARKET CONDITIONS

World Markets News: Asian markets finished sharply lower today with shares in Japan leading the region. European markets are sharply lower today with shares in Germany off the most. This is a very relevant move down. Be aware of the following indexes to be release:
  • 08:30 - Initial Jobless Claims
  • 10:00 - New Home Sales
  • 15:30 - ECB President Draghi Speaks   
Economic Calendar


SPY - Yesterday market made an unfair high, suggesting the long term sellers are back in the game. World markets are all down on significant moves. Today we are opening below the lower band of the up channel and at the potential Point of Control. Based on this information the short term bias is bearish until we find buyers and define a more clear support. On a long term bias, if we close below the lower band of the up channel, before going bearish, it is likely that the market goes into some type of range or consolidation. Since not enough volume was done pre-market, this open below the channel still means nothing for a longer term evaluation. There is also the possibility of the market making his way back inside the channel.

Long Term Bias: Neutral
Short Term Bias: Bearish 
Accuracy:75%

AM Stock Selection Sheet download
Updated at 8:00

Want more information about the Stock Selection Sheet?
Legends - Click me
Read this before using the information provided in this page:
1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk.2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The morning sheet will be updated between 8:00 and 9:00
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