Daily AM Prep - July, 26

** Preparation for Morning Session**

MARKET CONDITIONS

World Markets News: Asian markets finished mixed as of the most recent closing prices. European markets are mixed.

Economic Calendar



SPY - Staring to form a short term range. Since it´s Friday and with this low volatility scenario should stay inside the range.
1-) Neutral (50%) - As long as it is inside the 169.75 / 168.25 range this scenario is in play. Overall favoring the long positions is better, but allowed to take trades on the short side.
2-) Bullish (25%) - It is a little early for it to break up and continues moving higher, a longer consolidation would be better. Take the long trades but don´t be too greed on the targets.
3-) Bearish (25%) - Below 168.25 and holding put this scenario into play. Next support at 166.75.

Long Term Bias: Neutral Bullish
Short Term Bias: Neutral 

Updated at 7:45

Read this before using the information provided in this page:
1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk.2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The morning sheet will be updated between 8:00 and 9:00
No comments:

Daily AM Prep - July, 25

** Preparation for Morning Session**

MARKET CONDITIONS

World Markets News: Asian markets finished broadly lower today with shares in Japan leading the region. European markets are lower today with shares in France off the most. 

  • 08:30 - Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) - Neutral bias
  • 08:30 - Initial Jobless Claims - Bearish Bias

Economic Calendar



SPY - World indexes are all red and SPY could follow. So far this down move is just an expected pull back. When buyers step in and start holding prices should be a good place to jump in.
1-) Neutral (40%): Market developing into a trading rage at the top could be a good setup up for breaking up. As long as it is trading between 168.25 and 169.75 this scenario is in play. Take profits at the targets as market is in a trading range.
2-) Bearish (40%): This is a short term bearish scenario but would still be considered a pull back. The 166.75 level should provide some support. Take profits of short positions at this level and prepare to change bias and start building into long positions.
3-) Bullish (20%): Unlikely and not to be trusted. Market needs to develop a range to build strength before breaking up. Could try fading setups.

Long Term Bias: Neutral Bullish
Short Term Bias: Neutral / Bearish

Updated at

Read this before using the information provided in this page:
1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk.2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The morning sheet will be updated between 8:00 and 9:00
No comments:

Daily AM Prep - July, 24

** Preparation for Morning Session**

MARKET CONDITIONS

World Markets News: Asian markets finished mixed as of the most recent closing prices. European markets are broadly higher today with shares in Germany leading the region. 

  • 10:00 - New Home Sales - Bullish bias

Economic Calendar


SPY - Did not move much yesterday and the low volatility continues. Market internals behaved a little different yesterday, so change might be in the way.
1-) Neutral (50%) - the levels are very clear for the sideways move: 169.75 and 168.25. If start to trade below 169.25 is the first sign. Go for shorter targets.
2-) Bearish (25%) - has to start at scenario #1 and take out the 168.25 level. Volatility has to increase for this move to be consistent. Re-evaluate when the level is reached. Go for short trades, but take profits when the support zone is reached.
3-) Bullish (25%) - Europe is on the green and this could cause prices to gap up on the open. The question is if they will hold. 169.75 is the key level for this up move and if comes back below this level be careful with the long positions.

Long Term Bias: Neutral Bullish
Short Term Bias: Neutral

Updated at 7:40

Read this before using the information provided in this page:
1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk.2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The morning sheet will be updated between 8:00 and 9:00
No comments:

Daily AM Prep - July, 23

** Preparation for Morning Session**

MARKET CONDITIONS

World Markets News: Asian markets finished broadly higher today with shares in Hong Kong leading the region. European markets are higher today with shares in London leading the region. 

Economic Calendar



SPY - Pushing toward record highs. Volatility is still low and as long this scenario doesn´t change and sellers step in, prices will continue moving higher.
1-) Bullish (40%):  until sellers don´t show up prices will keep moving higher in a low volatility scenario. The main reference point for a change is the 169.25 level. If start trading below it scenario #2 comes into play. Keep favoring long trades.
2-) Neutral (40%): If the up trend is broken and start trading below 169.25 this scenario is in play. Trading the extremes and go for shorter targets.
3-) Bearish (20%): For this scenario to come into play, it has to first change to scenario #2. The key level is 166.75 and the volatility needs to increased. Don´t get too much excited with the short trades. Take profits as the support at 166.75 is tested.

Long Term Bias: Neutral Higher
Short Term Bias: Higher

Updated at 7:35

Read this before using the information provided in this page:
1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk.2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The morning sheet will be updated between 8:00 and 9:00
No comments:

Daily AM Prep - July, 22

** Preparation for Morning Session**

MARKET CONDITIONS

World Markets News: Asian markets finished mixed as of the most recent closing prices. European markets are mixed.

  • 10:00 - Existing Home Sales - Bullish expectation

Economic Calendar



SPY - Closed the week at the highs, but on low volume. Many stocks are to report this week these numbers could influence the market for a while. Market has been on this low volatility scenario and no signs of change yet.
1-) Neutral (35%): Monday is usually a low volatility day. As long as the market is trading between 168.25 and 169.25 this scenario is in play. Favor long trades since the market has been moving up.
2-) Bullish (33%): If start trading above 169.25 and holding, since we are on a low volatility market, it should go as high as 170.25 unless volatility start to increase. Keep favoring long trades.
3-) Bearish (32%): If start trading below 168.25 this scenario is in play. Could trade on the short side, but the next support at 166.75 is likely to hold prices, so don´t get greed on the short positions.

Long Term Bias: Neutral Bullish
Short Term Bias: Neutral

Updated at 7:35

Read this before using the information provided in this page:
1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk.2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The morning sheet will be updated between 8:00 and 9:00
No comments:

Daily AM Prep - July, 19

** Preparation for Morning Session**

MARKET CONDITIONS

World Markets News: Asian markets finished mixed as of the most recent closing prices. European markets are lower today with shares in France off the most. 

Economic Calendar



SPY - Still moving higher and trading at the highs. So far no sign of sellers and before a break up, it would be nice some kind of consolidation or pull back.
1-) Bearish (34%) - World markets are on the red and I believe the market need to rest for a while before breaking up. If start trading below 168.25 this scenario start to come into play. Overall we would still be in a bull market even with a move down so take your profits on the short trades.
2-) Neutral  (33%) - The fact that it is Friday suggests a more sideways move. This would be a very low volatility scenario so taking smallers profits is wise. The market could become choppy.
3-) Bullish  (33%) - For it to be trusted a lot of volume must be done. The more likely scenario would be for it to move higher and fail, coming back below 169.25 / 169.00. Dont´trust too much this up move and keep in mind it could reverse fast.

Long Term Bias: Neutral Bullish
Short Term Bias: Neutral

Updated at

Read this before using the information provided in this page:
1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk.2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The morning sheet will be updated between 8:00 and 9:00
No comments:

Daily AM Prep - July, 18

** Preparation for Morning Session**

MARKET CONDITIONS

World Markets News: Asian markets finished mixed as of the most recent closing prices. European markets are mixed today. 

  • 08:30 - Initial Jobless Claims - Bullish expectation
  • 10:00 - Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies 

Economic Calendar

SPY - Did not move much yesterday, even after FED announcement. Today there is another one scheduled to start at 10:00 and investors will wait before making any big plays.
1-) Neutral (40%) - This scenario is likely to be in play before the FED announcement. Has to stay between 166.75 and 168.25.
2-) Bullish (30%) - A break up could happen today but would not be a strong signal. Need a pull back or some kind of consolidation before breaking higher, so consider it to be a fake break up.
3-) Bearish (30%) - If start trading below 166.75, the next support area is at 165.00 zone, but this move would be treated as a pull back. Take the short trades, but take profits as it gets close to 165 level.

Long Term Bias: Neutral Bullish
Short Term Bias: Neutral 

Updated at 7:15

Read this before using the information provided in this page:
1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk.2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The morning sheet will be updated between 8:00 and 9:00
No comments:

Daily AM Prep - July, 17

** Preparation for Morning Session**

MARKET CONDITIONS

World Markets News: Asian markets finished mixed as of the most recent closing prices. European markets are mixed today. Stock markets were set for a cautious start Wednesday as investors wait for further comments from the U.S. Federal Reserve chairman, Ben Bernanke.

  • 10:00 - Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies - High volatility expected

Economic Calendar



SPY - Broke the shorter term up trend, but is still in an up trend. Currently prices are at the top of the longer term range. Market should wait for FED Chairman to speak before making any moves. High volatility is expected today.
1-) Neutral - Price should hold between 168.25 and 166.75 till FED´s announcement. After that need to identify which way the market will move. Be careful with the volatility.
2-) Bearish - since on the long time frame we are at the top of the range, some selling pressure at this level is expected. 165 zone should provide some support for this down move. This is expected only after the announcement. If happens before, we could see it move back up fast.
3-) Bullish - At this point a bullish up move is likely to be a fake break out. The 169.00 level is the resistance to the up move and market has moved quite a bit on the past weeks. For this up move to be trusted some consolidation or pull back should happen first.

Long Term Bias: Neutral Bullish
Short Term Bias: Bearish

Updated at 7:40

Read this before using the information provided in this page:
1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk.2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The morning sheet will be updated between 8:00 and 9:00
No comments:

Daily AM Prep - July, 16

** Preparation for Morning Session**

MARKET CONDITIONS

World Markets News: Asian markets finished higher today with shares in Japan leading the region. European markets are lower today with shares in France off the most. 

  • 08:30 - Core CPI (MoM) - Neutral Expectation


Economic Calendar


SPY - Keeps moving higher, but volume is starting to dry out. Very close to the recent high at 169.00 level. Some selling is expected at this level and a volatility increase would be a sign of sellers.
1-) Bearish (40%) - If start trading below 167.75 and holding, breaking the shorter time frame up trend, should test the next level at 166.50. This should provide support for this up move. Favor short trades, but close them when the support is reached. This would be healthy for a potential break up latter on.
2-) Bullish (40%) - We are very close to the high, so a test of this level is also likely scenario. Sellers should step in at this level and bring prices down, so don´t get too attached to long positions.
3-) Neutral (20%) - unlikely to happen and would start a narrow consolidation. Too narrow to hold on a potential break up of the high. This is a very low volatility scenario and don´t expect many opportunities.

Long Term Bias: Neutral Bullish
Short Term Bias: Bearish

Updated at

Read this before using the information provided in this page:
1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk.2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The morning sheet will be updated between 8:00 and 9:00
No comments:

Daily AM Prep - July, 15

** Preparation for Morning Session**

MARKET CONDITIONS

World Markets News: Asian markets finished higher today with shares in China leading the region. European markets are higher today with shares in France leading the region.

  • 08:30 - Core Retail Sales (MoM) - Bullish expectation
  • 08:30 - Retail Sales (MoM) - Bullish expectation


Economic Calendar



SPY - Keeps moving higher, but now it is into a sellers zone. Some volatility is expected at this level.
1-) Bullish (34%) - If we start to trade above 167.75 and holding, it is likely to test the previous high at 169.00. Favor long trades.
2-) Neutral (33%) - Considering it is Monday, the neutral day is possible as well. Must stay between 167.75 and 166.50 for this scenario to be valid.
3-) Bearish (33%) - If the 166.50 level is taken out, market may go into a bearish leg and close the gap. 165.25 level  should provide support for this move. Go with short trades, but when the suppport is reached get out and look for long trades.

Long Term Bias: Neutral Bullish
Short Term Bias: Neutral

Updated at 8:00

Read this before using the information provided in this page:
1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk.2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The morning sheet will be updated between 8:00 and 9:00
No comments:

Daily AM Prep - July, 12

** Preparation for Morning Session**

MARKET CONDITIONS

World Markets News: Asian markets finished mixed as of the most recent closing prices. European markets are higher today with shares in Germany leading the region. 

Economic Calendar



SPY - Most of this up move happened at the open, with prices gaping up. During the day a relative low trading range (low volatility). The target area for the up move has been achieved and we start entering a sellers zone.
1-) Neutral (40%) - since it´s Friday and markets tend to move less, so the first scenario is for it to stand where it is. Could break down the first up trend (momentum) an test the second trend.
2-) Bearish (30%) - It has  been moving up for some days now and entering the sellers zone. Need a lot of bulls to push this zone, but the bearish scenario start to become more likely. Remember it has a lot of support to beat still, so take short profits when reaching this support zones.
3-) Bullish (30%) - We could have a final push up to test the recent high or even try to start this move and fail. If we get above 167.50 and back, a potential failure and consequently prices would move lower.

Long Term Bias: Neutral
Short Term Bias: Neutral / Bullish

Updated at 7:50

Read this before using the information provided in this page:
1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk.2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The morning sheet will be updated between 8:00 and 9:00
No comments:

Daily AM Prep - July, 11

** Preparation for Morning Session**

MARKET CONDITIONS

World Markets News: Asian markets finished broadly higher today with shares in China leading the region. European markets are broadly higher today with shares in Germany leading the region.

  • 08:30 - Initial Jobless Claims - Bullish expected

Economic Calendar


SPY - Yesterday could be considered an inside day. There was a spike up when the FOMC Meeting Minutes where released, but prices move back below the high of the previous day.
1-) Neutral (30%) - As long as the market is between 165.25 and 164.20 this scenario is in play. The fact that it is holding above the down trend is an important bullish sign. This could develop into a low volatile day. Favor long plays if the market is holding this level.
2-) Bullish (30%) - The up move is possible and considering that the world markets are trading higher today, the SPY could gap up on the open. The next resistance levels are 166.00, 166.50, 167.75. Favor trades on the long side.
3-) Neutral Bearish (25%) - Even knowing this is a bearish short term move, on the long term would be just a pull back from the break of the trend line. Could trade on the short side, but don´t go for longer targets.
4-) Bearish (15%) - The sellers are not in control of this market so this is a low possibility scenario. If this happen, start looking for shorts.

Long Term Bias: Neutral Bullish
Short Term Bias: Neutral / Bullish

Updated at 7:30

Read this before using the information provided in this page:
1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk.2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The morning sheet will be updated between 8:00 and 9:00
No comments:

Daily AM Prep - July, 10

** Preparation for Morning Session**

MARKET CONDITIONS

World Markets News: Asian markets finished mixed as of the most recent closing prices. European markets are lower today with shares in London off the most. 

  • 14:00 - FOMC Meeting Minutes
  • 16:10 - Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks 


Economic Calendar

SPY - Broke the long term down trend and the question is: will it hold? This change the long term scenario to a neutral and prices are inside a bigger range. A pull back from this level to test the broken down trend would be healthy.
1-) Neutral Bearish (50%)- even know this is a bearish move, if it can hold above the 163.50, this move would be a pull back and have bullish long term implications. It is the most expected scenario.Trade on the short side, but flip it to long once the l63.50 is tested.
2-) Neutral (20%) - this is a very low volatile scenario and best to avoid trading. Only go for great opportunities and smaller profit targets.
3-) Bullish (10%)- Unlike to happen cause market has moved up too much. Even if the 160.00 is tested, do not get long for bigger profits. Market needs to rest first before making a new strong up move.
4-) Bearish (20%) - This scenario would be a development from scenario #1 and have bearish implications meaning the break up of the down trend was a fake one and the down trend will continue. If this happens favor short trades.

Long Term Bias: Neutral Bullish
Short Term Bias: Bearish

Updated at 7:35

Read this before using the information provided in this page:
1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk.2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The morning sheet will be updated between 8:00 and 9:00
No comments:

Daily AM Prep - July, 09

** Preparation for Morning Session**

MARKET CONDITIONS

World Markets News: Asian markets finished broadly higher today with shares in Japan leading the region. European markets are higher today with shares in London leading the region.

Economic Calendar


SPY - Gap up yesterday and did not move much from there. Low volatile day testing the long term down trend line. Where it go from here is very important: will the sellers take over and the down trend re-start or the buyers keep controlling the market put it into a more neutral state?
1-) Bullish (40%) - World markets on the green and the break of yesterday´s high could put market into an up momentum. Volume need to step in for the break of the down trend.
2-) Bearish (40%) - The short term up trend needs to be broken first, but for the market to confirm the down trend being re-taken need to go below 162.25. Otherwise, this could be just a pull back from the range break up.
3-) Neutral (20%) - dont´believe much that this will happen. This scenario also contemplates the possibility of the market trying to close the previous gap and going back above the 163.50 level.


Long Term Bias: Bearish
Short Term Bias: Bullish 

Updated at 7:15

Read this before using the information provided in this page:
1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk.2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The morning sheet will be updated between 8:00 and 9:00
No comments:

Daily AM Prep - July, 08

** Preparation for Morning Session**

MARKET CONDITIONS

World Markets News: Asian markets finished sharply lower today with shares in China leading the region. European markets are broadly higher today with shares in Germany leading the region.

  • 08:30 and 9:30 - ECB President Draghi Speaks

Economic Calendar



SPY - Has broken the short term range to the up side and it is likely to continue this away to test the longer term down trend.
1-) Bullish (40%) - If it continues moving higher, the longer term down trend is likely to attract sellers. Be careful around the 164.00 level with opened positions on the long side. Keep a tight stop. After the test have to re-evaluate.
2-) Bearish (40%) - If prices get back below 162.25, then most this would be a fake break up, meaning prices are likely to break to the down side of the range (if buyers don´t hold prices again). The longer term down trend will help push prices down. Favor short trades and longer targets.
3-) Neutral (20%) - After the break of the range, this scenario is unlikely, but if happens could have bullish implications. The longer it trades above the 162.25 level, the likely this value will be accepted and this could go on this it test the longer term trend. Since it is a low volatile scenario, stay away from big trades and take profits faster.

Long Term Bias: Bearish
Short Term Bias: Bullish

Updated at 7:30

Read this before using the information provided in this page:
1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk.2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The morning sheet will be updated between 8:00 and 9:00
No comments:

Daily AM Prep - July, 05

** Preparation for Morning Session**

MARKET CONDITIONS

World Markets News: Asian markets finished broadly higher today with shares in Japan leading the region. European markets are mixed. The FTSE 100 is higher by 0.47%, while the DAX is leading the CAC 40 lower.
  • 08:30 - Nonfarm Payrolls - Bearish expectation
  • 08:30 - Unemployment Rate - Bullish expectation
Economic Calendar


SPY - Market is moving inside a range between 160.25 | 162.25. Not many clues of where it should move next.
1-) Neutral (36%) - the only reason this scenario has a  greater chance of happening is because today is Friday and markets tend to move less. Play long and short trades, favoring trades at the extreme of the the range.
2-) Bullish (32%) - The break up would suggests a 2 point move, but the longer down trend line is likely to hold this move. Play the long trades, but take profits if the trend line starts to hold price.
3-) Bearish (32%) - As the bullish scenario, the break down also suggests a 2 point move. Since the longer trend is down, this 2 point down move has a cleaner path to achieve this goal. A "pit stop" at 159.25 is possible, but need to evaluate the break to determine that. Favor short trades.

Long Term Bias: Bearish
Short Term Bias: Neutral

Updated at 7:50

Read this before using the information provided in this page:
1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk.2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The morning sheet will be updated between 8:00 and 9:00
No comments:

Daily AM Prep - July, 03

** Preparation for Morning Session**

MARKET CONDITIONS

World Markets News: Asian markets finished broadly lower today with shares in Hong Kong leading the region. European markets are sharply lower today with shares in France off the most. 

  • Holiday - United States - The Day Before Independence Day - Early close at 13:00
  • 08:15 - ADP Nonfarm Employment Change - Bullish Expectation
  • 08:30 - Initial Jobless Claims - Neutral expectation


Economic Calendar



SPY - Second time market try to move higher in the morning and fail to hold. World markets are all red and the SPY should follow.
1-) Bearish (50%) - If market start trading below 160.25 and holding, it should continue lower. The 159.25 level could provide some support for the down move, but I believe this will be only a "pit stop". The expected down move would be a 2 point drop (size of the range). If test the 159.25 and goes back above 160.25, then scenario is change and re-evaluate. Favor short positions.
2-) Neutral (25%) - Market staying inside the 160.25 | 162.25 range is possible and could mean it is gathering the strength to break the down trend. Could play both sides (longs / shorts)
3-) Bullish (25%) - This is the path with most resistance. Prices has not been holding higher in the afternoon, and this show weakness. The longer it takes to close the gap, the closer the down trend get´s pressuring prices down. If start trading above 162.25, go for long trades, but keep shorter targets.

Long Term Bias: Bearish
Short Term Bias: Bearish

Updated at 7:20

Read this before using the information provided in this page:
1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk.2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The morning sheet will be updated between 8:00 and 9:00
No comments:

Daily AM Prep - July, 02

** Preparation for Morning Session**

MARKET CONDITIONS

World Markets News: Asian markets finished mixed as of the most recent closing prices.  European markets are lower today with shares in Germany off the most.

Economic Calendar



SPY - Yesterday market traded above the 161.50 level in the morning, but did not manage to hold above it in the afternoon. World markets are red and in Europe, Germany is leading the down move. If this is to be just a pull back, the up move must begin in the morning, with prices holding above the 161.50 level.
1-) Neutral Bearish (35%)- Market will trade down, breaking the up trend and holding at the 160.25. From there the expectation is for it to pull back and then continue the down move, but re-evaluation is good. A sideways move from this point into a smaller time-frame range is possible. Favor short trades, but could reverse.
2-) Bearish (20%) - Market breaks the down trend and don´t find a support at the 160.25 level, meaning it is really weak. Trade only on the short side.
3-) Neutral (20%) - if market decides to stay neutral for today, then could be building strength to break up. This would not be a very good trading scenario. Take profits fast cause volatility could be very small.
4-) Bullish (25%)- meaning yesterday afternoon´s movement was just a pull back and market would continue the up move. For this to happen it has to hold above the 161.50 level and then 162.25 level.

Long Term Bias: Bearish
Short Term Bias: Neutral Bearish

Accuracy:

AM Stock Selection Sheet download
Updated at 7:45

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Read this before using the information provided in this page:
1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk.2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The morning sheet will be updated between 8:00 and 9:00
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Trade Review - NKE - July, 01

Stock Selection Information

No relevant news on the stock. It had it´s earnings released on Friday morning or Thursday afternoon and it was in play (2nd day play). Stock had a bad reaction to the released, but recovered during the day. Today I was going for the follow up on that recovery.



Watch List Reason - 2nd day play
Pre-Market Volume - None
Trading Plan - Go long above 64.00

Management

Entry Setup used: Open range break up


Trading Comments

The level I was watching was 64.00. Market test it twice before actually moving. Could see some buyers on the tape and the Open Range formation I like to trade. As it was breaking the range up, I joined the buyers. It took 2 trades before the stock start moving up.
Market was overall strong, which helps long position. Reading which way it was moving and if it was following the expected scenario helped to find the entry/exit spots.

Evaluation

It was a good trade and well managed. The problem after that was to stick to the stock (that was moving higher) and take the other trade entries it was giving me. Besides that, it was a good trade. 
No comments:

Daily AM Prep - July, 01

** Preparation for Morning Session**

MARKET CONDITIONS

World Markets News: Asian markets finished broadly higher today with shares in Hong Kong leading the region. European markets are higher today with shares in London leading the region.

  • 10:00 - ISM Manufacturing Index - Bullish expected
  • Holidays: Canada and Hong Kong

Economic Calendar



SPY - World markets are on the green. Spy had a sideways consolidation during last session, closing the gap up of previous day. Notice the volume decreased in this up move.
1-) Neutral (33%) - Monday morning usually is a low session so the continuation of the sideways move is a possible movement for today. The range limitations are 161.50 and 160.00. If market start trading outside the range, move into the other scenarios. If volatility is very low, do not trade.
2-) Bullish (33%) - If start trading above 161.50 a gap fill is possible and the first resistance is the 163.00 level, followed by the long term down trend. Trade on the long side, but be careful when the resistances are reached.
3-) Bearish (33%) - The down move would come into play if start trading below 160.00, but a close support at 159.25 could cause prices to move back up. If not the down trend would continues and a new trend down line could come into play. Favor short trades.

Long Term Bias: Bearish
Short Term Bias: Neutral
Accuracy:

AM Stock Selection Sheet download
Updated at 7:40

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Read this before using the information provided in this page:
1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk.2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The morning sheet will be updated between 8:00 and 9:00
No comments:

Daily PM Prep - June, 28

** Preparation for Closing Session **

MARKET CONDITIONS



SPY - Moved into expected scenario #2 from morning preparation, which favored short trades. Likely to stay inside the 160 / 161.50 range today.
1-) Neutral (50%) - since it´s Friday, the expectation is for market to trade between the 160.00 and 161.50 levels till the close.
2-) Bearish (30%) - If the low of the day is taken out, it could move to next support level at 159.50. Would be good to trade on the short side, but would not much room. Watch as it get´s close to the 159.25 level to see if can break below.
3-) Bullish (20%) - If it take the high of the previous day and hold above, then it would move into this scenario which would favor long trades.
Long Term Bias: Bearish
Short Term Bias: Neutral
Accuracy: 

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Updated at 12:30

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Read this before using the information provided in this page:
1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk. 2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The afternoon sheet will be updated between 13:00 and 14:00
No comments:

Daily AM Prep - June, 28

** Preparation for Morning Session**

MARKET CONDITIONS

World Markets News: Asian markets closed sharply higher today with shares in Japan leading the region. European markets are lower today with shares in France off the most.

Economic Calendar



SPY - On the past 2 days it moves up pre-market and during the day moves with smaller amplitudes. Short term up trend was broken yesterday, putting market into sideways move.
1-) Neutral (35%) - Could test yesterday high / low but remain trading inside this range. This would be an inside day with low amplitude. Trading in days like this one is not good because stocks tend not no move much either. Be very selective to enter the trade.
2-) Bearish (33%) - Short term trend was broken. if the low is taken out, next supports are: 160.25 and 159.50. If sellers are really strong, and start holding the trading activity below the 160.25 level, things may get ugly. Favor short trades on lost supports.
3-) Bullish (32%) - up move is possible as well, but there is a gap at this level, so likely it will find some resistance at this level. If the gap is closed, buyers still have the down trend to win. Favor long trades and some possible short on resistance levels would be good trading.


Long Term Bias: Bearish
Short Term Bias: Neutral 

Accuracy:

AM Stock Selection Sheet download
Updated at 7:40

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Read this before using the information provided in this page:
1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk.2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The morning sheet will be updated between 8:00 and 9:00
No comments:

Trade Review - HDS - June, 27

Stock Selection Information

IPO today.
Price reference - 22.00 - 25.00
Shares - 53,191,489
Offer Amount - $1,529,255,300
**Daily picture not relevant

Watch List Reason - IPO
Pre-Market Volume - N/A
Trading Plan - To go long if price is above the reference levels.

Management

Entry Setup used: Momentum play with tape reading.


Trading Comments

The stock had opened below the reference prices and I was looking it trade around the 18.00. It should´ve drop this level, but did not. I could see the buying pressure on the way up. It tested the 18.25 once and failed it. On the second test, it broke above with good volume and I got in at 18.26. Tape reading skills helped me to take the trade on a momentum setup.
When momentum was over I closed the position.

Evaluation

The entry and execution of the trade was fine. This is how I like to trade, stocks with fast prints and momentum. Lately the market is not showing this movements pre-market, so I´ll need to adjust my opening strategies.
Also I could´ve stick to the stock and find other entry points in the stock.
No comments:

Daily PM Prep - June, 27

** Preparation for Closing Session **

MARKET CONDITIONS



SPY - It moved to the expected resistance area at 161.21 and now is consolidating at this level. Also respecting a short term up trend line.
1-) Neutral (60%) - It is the most expected scenario. Do not believe it will move too much in the afternoon. High and low of the day are the key levels to watch for the afternoon.

Long Term Bias: Bearish
Short Term Bias: Neutral
Accuracy: 80%

Updated at 12:50

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Read this before using the information provided in this page:
1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk. 2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The afternoon sheet will be updated between 13:00 and 14:00
No comments:

Daily AM Prep - June, 27

** Preparation for Morning Session**

MARKET CONDITIONS

World Markets News: Asian markets finished mixed as of the most recent closing prices.European markets are mixed. 

  • 08:30 - Initial Jobless Claims - Bullish expectation


Economic Calendar



SPY - Yesterday we had the level of the previous range tested at 160.25.
1-) Neutral (40%) - I don´t see the market gaping (up or down) today. The references for this scenario are the 159.50 and 161.25 level. Before moving to scenario #2 or #3 it has to start inside this range. If I am wrong and it gaps up, look for a gap fill to the down side. If it gaps down, then due to the bearish long term bias, go with the move. On low volatile scenario around the 160.25 level, stay away.
2-) Bearish (35%) - The long term bearish bias and the fact that we are testing the brake down zone, suggests buyers will not hold this level. If we start trading below 159.50 favor short trades.
3-) Bullish (25%) - If the bulls are stronger and decide to move prices higher, we have to possible resistances: the gap area and the down trend. Favor long trades, but don´t be too greed on the profits.

Long Term Bias: Bearish
Short Term Bias: Neutral
Accuracy: 75%

AM Stock Selection Sheet download
Updated at 7:50

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Read this before using the information provided in this page:
1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk.2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The morning sheet will be updated between 8:00 and 9:00
No comments:

Daily AM Prep - June, 26

** Preparation for Morning Session**

MARKET CONDITIONS

World Markets News: Asian markets finished mixed as of the most recent closing prices. European markets are sharply higher today with shares in France leading the region. 

  • 08:30 - GDP (QoQ) - 2.4% - No change expected


Economic Calendar



SPY - Market slowly move it´s way up yesterday, but is it still in a potential range zone. Did not see much strength in it yesterday, but Europe is all on the green and this could help an up move today.
1-) Neutral (50%) - To me this is the mostly likely scenario. For it to develop the range between the blue lines. It could test the 160.00 zone, but if goes back below this scenario is still in play.
2-) Bullish (30%) - The only reason this scenario is in front of the Bearish is because Europe is on the green. Otherwise this would be my least possible one. For this scenario to come into play must trade and hold above 160.00.
3-) Bearish (20%) - If the low of this down move is taken out, it is likely that we will test the next support at 154.00. Market could need a rest from falling, so it would have to come from a Neutral state to a Bearish one to make it true.

Long Term Bias: Bearish
Short Term Bias: Neutral

Accuracy: 95%

AM Stock Selection Sheet download
Updated at 8:45

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Read this before using the information provided in this page:
1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk.2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The morning sheet will be updated between 8:00 and 9:00
No comments:

Daily PM Prep - April, 25

** Preparation for Closing Session **

MARKET CONDITIONS



SPY - During the morning was very heavy ( had trouble going up) and choppy. I got in into some momentum trades at the open, but the best choice was to stay put and do not trade. My trading ideas were not working today.
1-) Neutral (85%) - The short term down trend was broken putting market in a sideways move, but so far it had a very low volatility and was not favoring my trading ideas today. if market start to trade above today´s high at 158.65, look for long trades. That´s the plan.

 Long Term Bias: Bearish
Short Term Bias: Neutral
Accuracy: 100%

PM Stock Selection Sheet download
Updated at 12:30

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Read this before using the information provided in this page:
1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk. 2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The afternoon sheet will be updated between 13:00 and 14:00
No comments:

Daily AM Prep - June, 25

** Preparation for Morning Session**

MARKET CONDITIONS

World Markets News: Asian markets finished mixed as of the most recent closing prices. European markets are broadly higher today with shares in France leading the region.

  • 08:15 - ECB President Draghi Speaks
  • 08:30 - Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) - Bearish
  • 10:00 - New Home Sales - Bullish


Economic Calendar



SPY - The expected bounce did not happen until afternoon and the market has moved lower, so it is weaker than previously expected. Europe is in the green, so there is a greater chance of some short term bullish action. For a bullish bias to come into play, must break up the 159.50 level and hold.
1-) Neutral (50%) - this was yesterday´s most expected move, that started in the afternoon and seems to continue today. The short term down trend must be broken putting market in a sideways move with good amplitude. If the amplitude is not confirmed and low volatility comes into play, do not trade.
2-) Bearish (35%) - Continue moving lower is possible, but it has moved a lot lower so far, so a rest would be healthy. Plays the extremes of the possible range, favoring short side is a good thing
3-) Bullish (15%) - After holding lower yesterday, below the bottom of the channel, seems the market is weaker than expected. So strong up move would be unexpected.

Long Term Bias: Bearish
Short Term Bias: Neutral
Accuracy: 90%

AM Stock Selection Sheet download
Updated at 7:25

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Read this before using the information provided in this page:
1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk.2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The morning sheet will be updated between 8:00 and 9:00
No comments:

Daily AM Prep - June, 24

** Preparation for Morning Session**

MARKET CONDITIONS

World Markets News: Asian markets finished sharply lower today with shares in China leading the region. European markets are sharply lower today with shares in France off the most. 

Economic Calendar



SPY - World markets continue moving lower, but the SPY need some rest, before it can continue moving lower. The expected support for the down move held, forming a confluence zone with the down channel.
1-) Neutral (50%) - The fact that it is Monday morning and market would benefit a lot from a consolidation at this level before moving lower, gives this scenario greater chance of happening. As long as we are between 160.25 and 158.00 this scenario is on.
2-) Bullish (30%) - After testing the base of the channel and holding, the next expected move is for it to test the top of the channel. This could affect the long term bias, as the market get back inside a long term range. It is hard to decide if this is just a pull back of the down trend or a long term fail break down of the range (160.25 / 169.00), so the range could change to this new unfair low formed at 158.00.
2-) Bearish (20%) - Market could gap down but be suspicious for a gap fill. Need some rest before moving lower. After 10:00 if is still moving down, go with it, cause market is weaker than first thought.

Long Term Bias: Bearish
Short Term Bias: Neutral
Accuracy:

AM Stock Selection Sheet download
Updated at 7:25

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Read this before using the information provided in this page:
1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk.2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The morning sheet will be updated between 8:00 and 9:00
No comments:

Daily AM Prep - June, 21

** Preparation for Morning Session**

MARKET CONDITIONS

World Markets News: Asian markets finished mixed as of the most recent closing prices.European markets are higher today with shares in London leading the region.

Economic Calendar



SPY - Important down move yesterday, with market breaking down a longer trend up line and the bottom of a range and closing near the low with big volume. This move changed my long term bias to bearish. Blue lines are the next potential supports for the down move.
1-) Neutral (50%) - This scenario suggests that market will trade today between 158.00 and 160.25. Shorting resistances would be a good trading plan or some small bounce up on the open could provide some long opportunities (with short targets).
2-) Bearish (25%) - The most clear support for the down move is at 154.00, so market could also continue its down move to that level.
3-) Bullish (25%) - If this happen we need to identify what is me market doing. It would be hard to tell at this point if this up move is a fake break down of the range or a bounce/pull back from the down trend break. Must be very careful with long positions in this scenario.
Long Term Bias: Bearish
Short Term Bias: Neutral
Accuracy:

AM Stock Selection Sheet download
Updated at 8:30

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Read this before using the information provided in this page:
1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk.2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The morning sheet will be updated between 8:00 and 9:00
No comments:

Daily AM Prep - June, 20

** Preparation for Morning Session**

MARKET CONDITIONS

World Markets News: Asian markets finished sharply lower today with shares in Hong Kong leading the region.. European markets are sharply lower today with shares in France off the most. 

  • 8:30 - Initial Jobless Claims - Bearish expectation
  • 10:00 - Existing Home Sales - Bullish expectation


Economic Calendar



SPY - Market had a bearish reaction to Bernake Speech yesterday, dropping sharply and breaking the small up trend.
1 - ) Neutral (45%)- After a strong down move a sideways move is expected, but it is a bit unclear were the supports for a this move would be. Look for gap fillings, but take profits faster on long trades.
2-) Bearish (40%) - Would be the follow through of yesterday move. This could put the market into a oversold level too fast and some kind of bounce. Watch for momentum plays and short trades.
3-) Bullish (15%) - Having a bullish reaction after this strong down move would show buyers strength, but it is unlikely to happen. This is the 3rd time we have a failed down trend break and market can not hold the level, this is why I don´t believe much this will happen today.

 Long Term Bias: Neutral
Short Term Bias: Bearish
Accuracy: 85%

AM Stock Selection Sheet download
Updated at 7:45

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Read this before using the information provided in this page:
1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk.2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The morning sheet will be updated between 8:00 and 9:00
No comments:

Daily AM Prep - June, 19

** Preparation for Morning Session**

MARKET CONDITIONS

World Markets News: Asian markets finished mixed as of the most recent closing prices. European markets are mixed. The DAX is higher by 0.15%, while the FTSE 100 is leading the CAC 40 lower. Important news release today:

  • 15:00 - FOMC Statement
  • 15:00 - Interest Rate Decision
  • 15:30 - Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks - Any comments from Bernanke suggesting that the Fed's bond-buying program end is near would likely lead to significant decline for US indexes.

Economic Calendar



SPY - Today is an important day, Bernake speaks at 15:30 and this is likely to move the market. So investors will likely wait for him to speak in order to open or close positions. Take that into consideration before open a trade. Increased volatility is also expected today.
1-) Neutral - till 2:30 p.m. market is likely to stay neutral inside the 166.50 / 165.25 level, cause investor will be waiting for Bernake to speak first. Look for volatility and for stocks that are moving with volume in this scenario.
2-) Bullish - Market could continue moving up, anticipating any good news from today´s event. In that case follow the reaction to the news on the long side, but be careful cause during his speech things may turn bad, if the expected news is not confirmed.
3-) Bearish - At the open I don´t think this scenario is likely to happen . This will only happen if  Fed's bond-buying program is turned off. There one situation that should be considered: the program is turned off and the reaction is positive. This would mean market is extremely strong.

Long Term Bias: Neutral
Short Term Bias: Neutral / Bearish
Accuracy: 50%

AM Stock Selection Sheet download
Updated at 8:00

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Read this before using the information provided in this page:
1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk.2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The morning sheet will be updated between 8:00 and 9:00
No comments:
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