Daily PM Prep - June, 28

Preparation for Closing Session

MARKET CONDITIONS

SPY - Moved into expected scenario #2 from morning preparation, which favored short trades. Likely to stay inside the 160 / 161.50 range today.
1-) Neutral (50%) - since it´s Friday, the expectation is for market to trade between the 160.00 and 161.50 levels till the close.
2-) Bearish (30%) - If the low of the day is taken out, it could move to next support level at 159.50. Would be good to trade on the short side, but would not much room. Watch as it get´s close to the 159.25 level to see if can break below.
3-) Bullish (20%) - If it take the high of the previous day and hold above, then it would move into this scenario which would favor long trades.
Long Term Bias: Bearish
Short Term Bias: Neutral
Accuracy:

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1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk. 2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The afternoon sheet will be updated between 13:00 and 14:00

Daily AM Prep - June, 28

Preparation for Morning Session

MARKET CONDITIONS

World Markets News: Asian markets closed sharply higher today with shares in Japan leading the region. European markets are lower today with shares in France off the most.

Economic Calendar

SPY - On the past 2 days it moves up pre-market and during the day moves with smaller amplitudes. Short term up trend was broken yesterday, putting market into sideways move.
1-) Neutral (35%) - Could test yesterday high / low but remain trading inside this range. This would be an inside day with low amplitude. Trading in days like this one is not good because stocks tend not no move much either. Be very selective to enter the trade.
2-) Bearish (33%) - Short term trend was broken. if the low is taken out, next supports are: 160.25 and 159.50. If sellers are really strong, and start holding the trading activity below the 160.25 level, things may get ugly. Favor short trades on lost supports.
3-) Bullish (32%) - up move is possible as well, but there is a gap at this level, so likely it will find some resistance at this level. If the gap is closed, buyers still have the down trend to win. Favor long trades and some possible short on resistance levels would be good trading.

Long Term Bias: Bearish
Short Term Bias: Neutral

Accuracy:

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Read this before using the information provided in this page:
1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk.2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The morning sheet will be updated between 8:00 and 9:00

Trade Review - HDS - June, 27

Stock Selection Information

IPO today.
Price reference - 22.00 - 25.00
Shares - 53,191,489
Offer Amount - $1,529,255,300
**Daily picture not relevant

Watch List Reason - IPO

Pre-Market Volume - N/A

Trading Plan - To go long if price is above the reference levels.

Management

Entry Setup used: Momentum play with tape reading.

Trading Comments

The stock had opened below the reference prices and I was looking it trade around the 18.00. It should´ve drop this level, but did not. I could see the buying pressure on the way up. It tested the 18.25 once and failed it. On the second test, it broke above with good volume and I got in at 18.26. Tape reading skills helped me to take the trade on a momentum setup.
When momentum was over I closed the position.

Evaluation

The entry and execution of the trade was fine. This is how I like to trade, stocks with fast prints and momentum. Lately the market is not showing this movements pre-market, so I´ll need to adjust my opening strategies.
Also I could´ve stick to the stock and find other entry points in the stock.

Daily PM Prep - June, 27

Preparation for Closing Session

MARKET CONDITIONS

SPY - It moved to the expected resistance area at 161.21 and now is consolidating at this level. Also respecting a short term up trend line.
1-) Neutral (60%) - It is the most expected scenario. Do not believe it will move too much in the afternoon. High and low of the day are the key levels to watch for the afternoon.

Long Term Bias: Bearish
Short Term Bias: Neutral
Accuracy: 80%

Updated at 12:50

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1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk. 2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The afternoon sheet will be updated between 13:00 and 14:00

Daily AM Prep - June, 27

Preparation for Morning Session

MARKET CONDITIONS

World Markets News: Asian markets finished mixed as of the most recent closing prices.European markets are mixed.

08:30 - Initial Jobless Claims - Bullish expectation

Economic Calendar

SPY - Yesterday we had the level of the previous range tested at 160.25.
1-) Neutral (40%) - I don´t see the market gaping (up or down) today. The references for this scenario are the 159.50 and 161.25 level. Before moving to scenario #2 or #3 it has to start inside this range. If I am wrong and it gaps up, look for a gap fill to the down side. If it gaps down, then due to the bearish long term bias, go with the move. On low volatile scenario around the 160.25 level, stay away.
2-) Bearish (35%) - The long term bearish bias and the fact that we are testing the brake down zone, suggests buyers will not hold this level. If we start trading below 159.50 favor short trades.
3-) Bullish (25%) - If the bulls are stronger and decide to move prices higher, we have to possible resistances: the gap area and the down trend. Favor long trades, but don´t be too greed on the profits.

Long Term Bias: Bearish
Short Term Bias: Neutral
Accuracy: 75%

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Read this before using the information provided in this page:
1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk.2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The morning sheet will be updated between 8:00 and 9:00

Daily AM Prep - June, 26

Preparation for Morning Session

MARKET CONDITIONS

World Markets News: Asian markets finished mixed as of the most recent closing prices. European markets are sharply higher today with shares in France leading the region.

08:30 - GDP (QoQ) - 2.4% - No change expected

Economic Calendar

SPY - Market slowly move it´s way up yesterday, but is it still in a potential range zone. Did not see much strength in it yesterday, but Europe is all on the green and this could help an up move today.
1-) Neutral (50%) - To me this is the mostly likely scenario. For it to develop the range between the blue lines. It could test the 160.00 zone, but if goes back below this scenario is still in play.
2-) Bullish (30%) - The only reason this scenario is in front of the Bearish is because Europe is on the green. Otherwise this would be my least possible one. For this scenario to come into play must trade and hold above 160.00.
3-) Bearish (20%) - If the low of this down move is taken out, it is likely that we will test the next support at 154.00. Market could need a rest from falling, so it would have to come from a Neutral state to a Bearish one to make it true.

Long Term Bias: Bearish
Short Term Bias: Neutral

Accuracy: 95%

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Read this before using the information provided in this page:
1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk.2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The morning sheet will be updated between 8:00 and 9:00

Daily PM Prep - April, 25

Preparation for Closing Session

MARKET CONDITIONS

SPY - During the morning was very heavy ( had trouble going up) and choppy. I got in into some momentum trades at the open, but the best choice was to stay put and do not trade. My trading ideas were not working today.
1-) Neutral (85%) - The short term down trend was broken putting market in a sideways move, but so far it had a very low volatility and was not favoring my trading ideas today. if market start to trade above today´s high at 158.65, look for long trades. That´s the plan.

Long Term Bias: Bearish
Short Term Bias: Neutral
Accuracy: 100%

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1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk. 2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The afternoon sheet will be updated between 13:00 and 14:00

Daily AM Prep - June, 25

Preparation for Morning Session

MARKET CONDITIONS

World Markets News: Asian markets finished mixed as of the most recent closing prices. European markets are broadly higher today with shares in France leading the region.

08:15 - ECB President Draghi Speaks
08:30 - Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) - Bearish
10:00 - New Home Sales - Bullish

Economic Calendar

SPY - The expected bounce did not happen until afternoon and the market has moved lower, so it is weaker than previously expected. Europe is in the green, so there is a greater chance of some short term bullish action. For a bullish bias to come into play, must break up the 159.50 level and hold.
1-) Neutral (50%) - this was yesterday´s most expected move, that started in the afternoon and seems to continue today. The short term down trend must be broken putting market in a sideways move with good amplitude. If the amplitude is not confirmed and low volatility comes into play, do not trade.
2-) Bearish (35%) - Continue moving lower is possible, but it has moved a lot lower so far, so a rest would be healthy. Plays the extremes of the possible range, favoring short side is a good thing
3-) Bullish (15%) - After holding lower yesterday, below the bottom of the channel, seems the market is weaker than expected. So strong up move would be unexpected.

Long Term Bias: Bearish
Short Term Bias: Neutral
Accuracy: 90%

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1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk.2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The morning sheet will be updated between 8:00 and 9:00

Daily AM Prep - June, 24

Preparation for Morning Session

MARKET CONDITIONS

World Markets News: Asian markets finished sharply lower today with shares in China leading the region. European markets are sharply lower today with shares in France off the most.

Economic Calendar

SPY - World markets continue moving lower, but the SPY need some rest, before it can continue moving lower. The expected support for the down move held, forming a confluence zone with the down channel.
1-) Neutral (50%) - The fact that it is Monday morning and market would benefit a lot from a consolidation at this level before moving lower, gives this scenario greater chance of happening. As long as we are between 160.25 and 158.00 this scenario is on.
2-) Bullish (30%) - After testing the base of the channel and holding, the next expected move is for it to test the top of the channel. This could affect the long term bias, as the market get back inside a long term range. It is hard to decide if this is just a pull back of the down trend or a long term fail break down of the range (160.25 / 169.00), so the range could change to this new unfair low formed at 158.00.
2-) Bearish (20%) - Market could gap down but be suspicious for a gap fill. Need some rest before moving lower. After 10:00 if is still moving down, go with it, cause market is weaker than first thought.

Long Term Bias: Bearish
Short Term Bias: Neutral
Accuracy:

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1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk.2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The morning sheet will be updated between 8:00 and 9:00

Daily AM Prep - June, 21

Preparation for Morning Session

MARKET CONDITIONS

World Markets News: Asian markets finished mixed as of the most recent closing prices.European markets are higher today with shares in London leading the region.

Economic Calendar

SPY - Important down move yesterday, with market breaking down a longer trend up line and the bottom of a range and closing near the low with big volume. This move changed my long term bias to bearish. Blue lines are the next potential supports for the down move.
1-) Neutral (50%) - This scenario suggests that market will trade today between 158.00 and 160.25. Shorting resistances would be a good trading plan or some small bounce up on the open could provide some long opportunities (with short targets).
2-) Bearish (25%) - The most clear support for the down move is at 154.00, so market could also continue its down move to that level.
3-) Bullish (25%) - If this happen we need to identify what is me market doing. It would be hard to tell at this point if this up move is a fake break down of the range or a bounce/pull back from the down trend break. Must be very careful with long positions in this scenario.
Long Term Bias: Bearish
Short Term Bias: Neutral
Accuracy:

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Read this before using the information provided in this page:
1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk.2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The morning sheet will be updated between 8:00 and 9:00

Daily AM Prep - June, 20

Preparation for Morning Session

MARKET CONDITIONS

World Markets News: Asian markets finished sharply lower today with shares in Hong Kong leading the region.. European markets are sharply lower today with shares in France off the most.

8:30 - Initial Jobless Claims - Bearish expectation
10:00 - Existing Home Sales - Bullish expectation

Economic Calendar

SPY - Market had a bearish reaction to Bernake Speech yesterday, dropping sharply and breaking the small up trend.
1 - ) Neutral (45%)- After a strong down move a sideways move is expected, but it is a bit unclear were the supports for a this move would be. Look for gap fillings, but take profits faster on long trades.
2-) Bearish (40%) - Would be the follow through of yesterday move. This could put the market into a oversold level too fast and some kind of bounce. Watch for momentum plays and short trades.
3-) Bullish (15%) - Having a bullish reaction after this strong down move would show buyers strength, but it is unlikely to happen. This is the 3rd time we have a failed down trend break and market can not hold the level, this is why I don´t believe much this will happen today.

Long Term Bias: Neutral
Short Term Bias: Bearish
Accuracy: 85%

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Read this before using the information provided in this page:
1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk.2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The morning sheet will be updated between 8:00 and 9:00

Daily AM Prep - June, 19

Preparation for Morning Session

MARKET CONDITIONS

World Markets News: Asian markets finished mixed as of the most recent closing prices. European markets are mixed. The DAX is higher by 0.15%, while the FTSE 100 is leading the CAC 40 lower. Important news release today:

15:00 - FOMC Statement
15:00 - Interest Rate Decision
15:30 - Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks - Any comments from Bernanke suggesting that the Fed's bond-buying program end is near would likely lead to significant decline for US indexes.

Economic Calendar

SPY - Today is an important day, Bernake speaks at 15:30 and this is likely to move the market. So investors will likely wait for him to speak in order to open or close positions. Take that into consideration before open a trade. Increased volatility is also expected today.
1-) Neutral - till 2:30 p.m. market is likely to stay neutral inside the 166.50 / 165.25 level, cause investor will be waiting for Bernake to speak first. Look for volatility and for stocks that are moving with volume in this scenario.
2-) Bullish - Market could continue moving up, anticipating any good news from today´s event. In that case follow the reaction to the news on the long side, but be careful cause during his speech things may turn bad, if the expected news is not confirmed.
3-) Bearish - At the open I don´t think this scenario is likely to happen . This will only happen if Fed's bond-buying program is turned off. There one situation that should be considered: the program is turned off and the reaction is positive. This would mean market is extremely strong.

Long Term Bias: Neutral
Short Term Bias: Neutral / Bearish
Accuracy: 50%

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Read this before using the information provided in this page:
1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk.2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The morning sheet will be updated between 8:00 and 9:00

Daily AM Prep - June, 18

Preparation for Morning Session

MARKET CONDITIONS

World Markets News: Asian markets finished mixed as of the most recent closing prices. European markets are mixed today. Core CPI (MoM) to be released before market opens.

Economic Calendar

SPY - Yesterday gaped up breaking the down trend. This gap provided support for the afternoon down move.
1-) Neutral - This scenario suggests market will move sideways respecting yestereday´s high and low and not moving much. If it does that, trading will be a little bit more difficult. Choose well the trades I´ll be entering, cause it is unlikely to have momentum at the open.
2-) Bullish - After breaking a trend line down, the expectation is for it to move higher. If yestereday´s high is taken out be prepared for a strong up move. Favor long trades and go for longer profit targets.
3-) Neutral Bearish - This scenario suggests that there was no conviction in the trend break, so start looking for shorts, but be careful for it not to be a trap. If it continues lower into scenario #4, will be in great position
4-) Bearish - if this is a fake break again, then things might get ugly. Don´t think this is a very probable scenario, but it is possible. This would be more of an evolution of scenario #3.

Long Term Bias: Neutral
Short Term Bias: Neutral / Bullish
Accuracy: 95%

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Updated at 7:25

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Read this before using the information provided in this page:
1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk.2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The morning sheet will be updated between 8:00 and 9:00

Daily AM Prep - June, 17

Preparation for Morning Session

MARKET CONDITIONS

World Markets News: Asian markets finished broadly higher today with shares in Japan leading the region. European markets are higher today with shares in Germany leading the region.

Economic Calendar

SPY - World markets being on the green and strong suggesting a bullish open for today.
1- Bullish - Monday morning is usually a slower session, but markets around the world are strong, so the chance of breaking the down trend formed last session is increased. In this case need to watch how market behaves at the following level: 165.25 / 166.50. Could consolidate at the 165.25 level before breaking up.
2- Neutral - a more neutral scenario would be for it to continue in the range between 161.50 / 165.25. At first respecting the down trend. If breaks the down trend, need to re-evaluate .
3- Bearish - If take down the 161.25, level the range would be extended down to 165.25 / 160.25 with a good possibility of it breaking to the down side latter on.

Long Term Bias: Neutral
Short Term Bias: Bullish
Accuracy: 60%

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Read this before using the information provided in this page:
1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk.2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The morning sheet will be updated between 8:00 and 9:00

Daily AM Prep - June, 14

Preparation for Morning Session

MARKET CONDITIONS

World Markets News: Asian markets finished broadly higher today with shares in Japan leading the region. European markets are higher today with shares in Germany leading the region.

Economic Calendar

SPY - Yesterday market tested the 160.25 level during pre-market, and move higher from there, breaking the zone we thought would provide resistance to it. That was an unexpected scenario. It was a mix of scenario #1 and scenario #3. An smaller range can be seen between 165.25 and 161.50. World markets suggests this up move is likely to continue.
1-) Bullish - continues moving higher today, consolidates near the 165.25 before breaking higher. This break could occur afternoon or probably during next session. Since Friday afternoon and Monday morning are usually slow, this scenario would fit perfectly. Favor long trades.
2-) Strong Bullish - Market is coming from the bottom of the range and if it breaks the 165.25 level, mostly likely will do a pull back (could also be a consolidation) before continue it´s up move. Favor long trades.
3-) Neutral - This scenario suggests the market being not controlled by buyers or sellers and will trade around (no conviction) between the 165.25 and 161.50 range. Play the extremes fading would be wise.
4-) Bearish - If sellers were in control market would´ve moved lower yesterday as expected. Since it tested the support and move higher, this scenario is not likely to happen.

Long Term Bias: Neutral
Short Term Bias: Bullish
Accuracy: 75%

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Updated at 8:35

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Read this before using the information provided in this page:
1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk.2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The morning sheet will be updated between 8:00 and 9:00

Daily AM Prep - June, 13

Preparation for Morning Session

MARKET CONDITIONS

World Markets News: Asian markets finished sharply lower today with shares in Japan leading the region. European markets are broadly lower today with shares in Germany off the most. Be aware of the following indicators to be released before market opens.

Core Retail Sales (MoM)
Initial Jobless Claims
Retail Sales (MoM)

Economic Calendar

SPY - Could not hold above the top of the channel and confirm the break up was a fake one. Sellers manage to bring prices down and bulls were trapped.
1- Bearish - after 3 failed attempts to go higher and break the top of the channel, I believe that there are more people trapped on long positions. This is why I think this down move has potential to continue till the 160.25 level.
2- Neutral - usually after a strong day down, come a inside day or a more neutral day, where the market rests. So this is my second scenario of choice. The reason it is not my first choice was explained above.
3- Bullish - unlikely to happen after 3 attempts failed to break up. Now there is a zone of resistance: 163.10 / 162.70 for the market to break before we can have a bullish bias.

Long Term Bias: Neutral
Short Term Bias: Bearish
Accuracy:

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Read this before using the information provided in this page:
1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk.2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The morning sheet will be updated between 8:00 and 9:00

Daily AM Prep - June, 12

Preparation for Morning Session

MARKET CONDITIONS

World Markets News: Asian markets finished broadly lower today with shares in China leading the region. European markets are higher today with shares in France leading the region.

Economic Calendar

SPY - Yesterday market move lower, bounce from a support area, but had no follow through. It could not hold above the top of the channel. Because of that a bullish scenario today seems unlikely.The path with least resistance seems to be down
1- Bearish: for this scenario to happen, prices must start holding below 162.70. A consolidation between 162.70 and 163.10 would also fit this scenario if followed by a break down. Favor short trades, losing supports.
2- Neutral: This scenario has a lot of resistances to break. We have yesterday´s high (164.50), the point of control (164.80) and the high of the previous attempted break up (165.30). Could trade short or long trades in this scenario.
Obs.: The probability between scenario #1 and #2 are not far apart. It is a bit unclear which one to choose from.World markets do not give any clues also.

3- Bullish: Market would need to move a lot for this scenario to happen and it is unlikely for this to happen today.

Long Term Bias: Neutral
Short Term Bias: Bearish or Neutral
Accuracy:100%

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Read this before using the information provided in this page:
1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk.2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The morning sheet will be updated between 8:00 and 9:00

Daily PM Prep - June, 11

Preparation for Closing Session

MARKET CONDITIONS

SPY - The morning scenario #2 was the selected path. It tried to go below yesterday´s low, but at the gap buyers came in, holding prices. We are now trading inside yesterday´s range, but this fail to move lower has some bullish implications.
1- Bullish - I don´t thing it will break higher today, but the fact that it did not fall at the open (failed to go down), suggests the break of the down channel was good and we are likely to move higher. A consolidation today around the point of control at 164.75 level would be preparing for a break tomorrow.
2/3 - Neutral - Scenarios 2 and 3 suggests market will hold between 163.25 and 165.30. Scenario #2 would be a little more bullish than #3, but they are both in a "neutral" state. Trading at the extremes of the ranges on this scenario, long or short trades would be a smart idea. Also watch which side this range would break and play along with it.
4- Bearish - Unlikely to happen. World markets were down, it had broken yesterday´s low, everything was setup for it to drop, but didn´t. Meaning buyers are at this level. They were not desperate to sell their positions opened when the gap up happen and more buyers jumped in today.
Long Term Bias: Neutral
Short Term Bias: Neutral Bullish
Accuracy: 50%

PM Stock Selection Sheet download
Updated at 13:15

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Read this before using the information provided in this page:
1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk. 2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The afternoon sheet will be updated between 13:00 and 14:00

Daily AM Prep - June, 11

Preparation for Morning Session

MARKET CONDITIONS

World Markets News: Asian markets finished sharply lower today with shares in Japan leading the region. European markets are sharply lower today with shares in France off the most.

Economic Calendar

SPY - World markets are all red with strong down movements, but the down channel in the SPY was broken up. Is this a fake break up?
1- Neutral with bullish implications: since we broke the down channel up, but the markets around the world are all red, this is the most expected scenarios. Prices will trade around the point of control between 163.75 and 165.30 for this scenario to be valid. It would be a bullish sign at first, confirming the break of the down channel, so look favor long trades, but allowed to take the short side as well.
2- Neutral bearish - This scenario would make me question the break up of the down channel, but still would have the 162.70 level as a resistance. Watch how it bounces from this level to measure bulls strength to determine the next likely path. Favor short trades, but be careful with the bounce.
3- Bearish - The bearish scenario is possible because world markets are all in the red zone. Bulls would be trapped because of the fake break up of the down channel, causing prices to sell off. At the 162.70 a small pull back or consolidation could happen before the market breaks down to test the 160.25 level.
4- Bullish - High of the previous day is taken out and would be the confirmation of the up break of the down channel. Favor long trades and be very careful to short at this scenario.

Long Term Bias: Neutral
Short Term Bias: Neutral
Accuracy: 80%

AM Stock Selection Sheet download
Updated at 9:15

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Read this before using the information provided in this page:
1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk.2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The morning sheet will be updated between 8:00 and 9:00

About AM and PM preparation - Scenarios

I think it is important to explain the changes I am making to my AM and PM preparation, so people can understand it.
I want to make it clear that my idea with the morning sheet is not to forecast the market, but to be prepare for it. Some when they look at this chart may say: "Ok, you´ve guessed that the market could go higher, go neutral and go bearish. It´s impossible to be wrong!!!". That is true, but I do not care to be right or wrong. I am not a fortune teller, that´s not my goal with this.

So you might ask, what I am trying to achieve with this?

My job as a trades is to be prepared for whatever happens and to make money from the opportunities the market throw at me. The more money the better, but the only problem is sometimes the market is just not good and the best thing to do is to stay out. If you avoid losing, you also make money.

I came to realize from my trades in the past that I do not trade well when the market is sideways moving very little. Market does not give me many (or any) good opportunities, so the best thing for me is to stay out. I could also try to find a different way to trade this type of market which is exactly what I am trying to work on.

Daily PM Prep - June, 10

Preparation for Closing Session

MARKET CONDITIONS

SPY - Is following the trading scenario #2 of the morning analysis. It is expected to remain neutral for the rest of the day. I do not see too much strength today. In days like this I do not trade well, so the best thing to do is to wait for something really great to happen.
1- Market to remain trading between correct day´s high and the 163.80 level. This could be a pull back from the channel break up, with follow up to the upside tomorrow. It depends how much it will pull back.
2- If market makes a new high today, we could test the 166.50 and the 167.75 level. This scenario would favor trades on the long side. New highs followed by consolidation above it could provide good entries.
3- This scenario is considered a neutral bearish and the gap at the chart must hold prices for it to provide trading opportunities. Could enter short at the begging of the move, but the 162.25 level must be watched, since prices could bounce back up fast.
4- Most bearish scenario and most unlike to me. If the 162.25 do not hold, buyers will be trapped, causing prices to fall fast to the previous support at 160.25 (maybe even lower). Favor short trades if this start to happens.

Long Term Bias: Neutral
Short Term Bias: Neutral bullish
Accuracy: 100%

PM Stock Selection Sheet download
Updated at 13:20

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Read this before using the information provided in this page:
1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk. 2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The afternoon sheet will be updated between 13:00 and 14:00

Daily AM Prep - June, 10

Preparation for Morning Session

MARKET CONDITIONS

World Markets News: Asian markets finished mixed as of the most recent closing prices. European markets are mixed today, with DAX (Germany) positive.

Economic Calendar

SPY - Seems to be breaking up the down channel, going into a new pattern. Listed scenarios
1- Market takes the previous high and move up to next resistance levels at 166.50 / 167.75. This would favor long trades and is to me the mostly likely scenario.
2- A more neutral approach is for it to trade around the point of control with low volatility. In this scenario trade only stocks that are moving and stays away from small open ranges
3- A test and reverse scenario would be for the market to break below the previous low, but find support at the 162.60 level and move back above the low. In this case, to go long on support plays are a good choice.
4- This is the more bearish scenario and to me the least possible. It takes the low of previous session and the 162.60 do not hold prices. Meaning this gap was a failure and bull would be trapped, causing a selling strong move down to test the 160.25, maybe even lower.

Long Term Bias: Neutral
Short Term Bias: Bullish / Neutral

Accuracy: 85%

AM Stock Selection Sheet download - I am adding some information into the sheet. Still under test.
Updated at 8:50

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Read this before using the information provided in this page:
1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk.2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The morning sheet will be updated between 8:00 and 9:00

Daily AM Prep - June, 07

Preparation for Morning Session

MARKET CONDITIONS

World Markets News: Asian markets finished broadly lower today with shares in China leading the region. European markets are mixed, but DAX is negative. Be aware of the following:

Nonfarm Payrolls: no change expected
Unemployment Rate: a little bullish

Economic Calendar

SPY - As expected the buyers were found at the gap area and the 160.50 level became a support. The question now is the following: will this confluence zone formed by the steeper trend line down (purple) and the resistance at 162.75 (blue) strong enough to stop the buyers? First scenario is that sellers will hold this level and price will come down again, testing the buyers at the 160.50 level (to see how committed they are). If buyers are strong, the level will hold and prices will break the steeper down trend (purple) after that. If not, that will be the angle that market will fall. I don´t believe sellers are that strong yet. The other more bullish scenarios suggests the down trend will be broken today and market will consolidate at the 162.75 level, for a break up next week or maybe will break up today without a consolidation (more bullish approach). The point of control and top of the down channel becomes the target for the up move.

Long Term Bias: Bearish / Neutral
Short Term Bias: Neutral Bullish

Accuracy: 100%

AM Stock Selection Sheet download
Updated at 8:50

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Read this before using the information provided in this page:
1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk.2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The morning sheet will be updated between 8:00 and 9:00

Daily AM Prep - June, 06

Preparation for Morning Session

MARKET CONDITIONS

World Markets News: Asian markets finished broadly lower today with shares in China leading the region. European markets are higher today with shares in France leading the region. Be aware of the following:

07:45 - Interest Rate Decision
08:45 - ECB Press Conference
08:30 - Initial Jobless Claims

Economic Calendar

* I´ve been making some changes to my software package and tools. Have not decided yet which software to use for the SPY analysis.

SPY - Has been coming down, looking for buyers on a down trend channel. Will the gap area provide this support? If buyers start holding this gap area, than the first scenario is the market to go into a sideways move till it starts to break the down trend and we need to re-evaluate to see were it could go from there. IF the buyers are stronger, than this area will be hold and prices will immediately move higher on a strong up move, but I don´t think the overall market conditions will support this up move. The other possibility is for it to continue moving down, but even for this down move, the market will need some kind of consolidation first.

Long Term Bias: Bearish
Short Term Bias: Neutral

Accuracy: 90%

AM Stock Selection Sheet download - also going through some changes. The way it is now will make the alert setting a lot more easy and same time to me.
Updated at 8:55

Want more information about the Stock Selection Sheet?
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Read this before using the information provided in this page:
1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk.2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The morning sheet will be updated between 8:00 and 9:00

Daily AM Prep - June, 04

Preparation for Morning Session

MARKET CONDITIONS

World Markets News: Asian markets finished mixed as of the most recent closing prices.European markets are higher today with shares in London leading the region.

Economic Calendar

SPY - Yesterday morning sellers were in control and in the afternoon buyers were in control. Taking into consideration that market could no trade below 162.75 zone, tell us there are still buyers present in this region. Looking back (05/08 till 05/13) we can see the market had to work harder to break above, so it should have trouble as well to break down. Since it had failed in trading lower, the expectation is for it to trade higher today and test the 165.50 resistance (down trend line and point of control). It is also possible the market will have a neutral day, trading around the 164.00 level and not move much. If we start to trade below 162.75 the bias will change to bearish, since this seems to be the area were people are willing to buy. On a longer time frame, the Neutral to Bearish bias was not confirmed cause it should´ve been able to break the 162.75 level and accelerate down, so we are back to Neutral.

Long Term Bias: Neutral
Short Term Bias: Bullish / Neutral

Accuracy:

AM Stock Selection Sheet download
Updated at 7:30

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Read this before using the information provided in this page:
1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk.2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The morning sheet will be updated between 8:00 and 9:00

Daily PM Prep - June, 03

Preparation for Closing Session

MARKET CONDITIONS

SPY - Not much has changed from morning analysis. Market is moving slowly down as expected and we had a morning session that rewarded the sellers. SPY already tried to go below friday´s low, but failed to continue down. There is a possibility of a neutral afternoon if we don´t hold below 166.60. An intraday bullish sign would be if we start trading above 164.25, but I think that is unlikely to happen today.
Long Term Bias: Neutral to Bearish
Short Term Bias: Bearish
Accuracy:

PM Stock Selection Sheet download
Updated at 13:15

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Read this before using the information provided in this page:
1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk. 2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The afternoon sheet will be updated between 13:00 and 14:00

Daily AM Prep - June, 03

Preparation for Morning Session

MARKET CONDITIONS

World Markets News: Asian markets finished broadly lower today with shares in Japan leading the region. European markets are lower today with shares in France off the most. ISM Manufacturing Index to be released during market hours at 10:00. Market is expecting no change for this index.

Economic Calendar

SPY - Last trading session market broke and close below the support level at 164.00 zone suggesting a confirmation of a Lower High formation (starting a down trend) because of that the expected scenario is for it to continue down until it find buyers. A potential down channel can be seen at the chart and this would put the 161.75 area as next support to be tested. A more bullish scenario would be if we can hold this gap up (with low volume so far). Still if this happens there is a down trend line (the top of the channel) to be broken putting us back into a long term neutral scenario.

Long Term Bias: Neutral to Bearish
Short Term Bias: Bearish

Accuracy: 100%

AM Stock Selection Sheet download
Updated at 8:10

Want more information about the Stock Selection Sheet?
Legends - Click me

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Read this before using the information provided in this page:
1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk.2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The morning sheet will be updated between 8:00 and 9:00

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