Daily AM Prep - April, 24

** Preparation for Morning Session**

MARKET CONDITIONS

World Markets News: Asian markets closed sharply higher today with shares in Japan leading the region. European markets are higher today with shares in France leading the region. Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM)  to be released before market opens.

Economic Calendar



SPY - Market has closed above the 157.25 on a stronger movement than expected. This meas the buyer are still present and the fail break high is likely to be a range expansion. The prior range was 157.25 | 153.75.  The range extension is likely to be 159.25 | 153.75. When it broke above this range, longer time buyers where in control. When it fails the break, long term sellers rejected the prices, since it was a strong move. This range extension actually means a change of control from Intermediate to Long term control. For today we expect the market to respect the trend line and test the upper part of the range new range. This will help to delimit the upper part of the newer range.

Bias: Bullish
Accuracy: 80% as market is holding above 157.25 is likely to confirm the range extension.

AM Stock Selection Sheet download - a lot of names today. Main ideas are checked, but will be going to charts to find more good ones.

Updated at 8:30

Want more information about the Stock Selection Sheet?
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Read this before using the information provided in this page:
1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk.2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The morning sheet will be updated between 8:00 and 9:00
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Trade Review - COH - April, 23


Stock Selection Information


UPDATE: Coach Posts Upbeat FQ3 Profit

More on Coach's (COH) Q1: Sales in North America rose 7% Y/Y to $792M led by the direct-to-consumer channel while international sales increased 6% to $382M. A big focus on the Men's business appears to be paying off for the retailer with sales on track to double to over $600M this year. The company raises its annual dividend payout by $0.15 to $1.35 per share.  (PR)

Coach (COH): FQ3 EPS of $0.84 beats by $0.03. Revenue of $1.19B (+7% Y/Y) in-line. (PR)





Watch List Reason - Earnings before the open today
Pre-Market Volume - > than 10% 
Trading Plan -  Go long above 56.00

Management

Entry Setup used: Support on the 56.00 level (pre-market range with good volume)


Trading Comments

It was clear that there was a buying pressure when watching the tape. Could see the offers getting taken faster. I saw a catalyst that drove the first up move above 56.00 when a big buyer came in.

Evaluation

Must not double down. I had justifications to it, but still is a trade mistake. The only good thing about this is that I had my risk under control. Even know I was doubling down I followed the position to see if it was within my risk parameters.
Did a good job in adding into the other positions, Including the last add that got me stopped out of the position and broke the up trend. If the stock were to continue in the up trend I would´ve have a great and strong position. Besides the trade was already in the positive side. The target would´ve been the top of the pre-market range. 
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Daily PM Prep - April, 23

** Preparation for Closing Session **

MARKET CONDITIONS



SPY - Stronger move than expected, which is good for buyers. The range extension is possible. A close above 157.25 would be a confirmation of this extension.The bias will only change today if the up trend is broken. Since it has made a strong up move, some sideways action is possible. If we close back below 157.25 than we wait til tomorrow´s open to re-evaluate the overall market picture.
Bias: Bullish
Accuracy: 80% - fake new about a bomb in the White House caused an explosive move down and the market was acting carefully after that. Less liquidity after the fact.

PM Stock Selection Sheet download
Updated at 12:30

Want more information about the Stock Selection Sheet?
Legends - Click me
Read this before using the information provided in this page:
1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk. 2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The afternoon sheet will be updated between 13:00 and 14:00
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Daily AM Prep - April, 23

** Preparation for Morning Session**

MARKET CONDITIONS

World Markets News: Asian markets finished broadly lower today with shares in China leading the region. European markets are broadly higher today with shares in France leading the region. Core Retail Sales in Canada and New Home Sales in the US to be released before market opens.

Economic Calendar



SPY - Market is trading in range. Europe is up and Asia is down, hard to pick a side, so the mostly like is to go nowhere and trade around the point of control. It may try to make a new high, going to test the top of the range at 157.25, where sellers should appear. If we test the high of the fail break at 159.50, we could have a range extension (unlikely). Yesterday low should hold prices on the way down, but if it doesn´t as the up trend is broken a stronger leg to the bottom of the range at 153.75 or even lower could happen.
Bias: Neutral.
Accuracy: 50% Market is holding above 157.25. This move was stronger than expected.

AM Stock Selection Sheet download
Updated at 8:30

Want more information about the Stock Selection Sheet?
Legends - Click me
Read this before using the information provided in this page:
1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk.2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The morning sheet will be updated between 8:00 and 9:00
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Talking about Value - The auction process - Part II

This is the continuation of the following article: Talking about Value - The auction process - Part I. Make sure you start there.

If you recall, we use an average of the closing prices to determine the reference value from our auction. Most of you will think: " I´ve seen this before, same concept as the moving average I use in my trading". Not quite the same. Take a look at the picture below and we will talk about. 

So what we did in our example was to use an average of prices to find the reference point, but in fact, value is determined by price x time x volume. The longer time stay at a certain price and the more volume is done at that price, the closer value will be to that price. We´ve come up with that conclusion in our previous articles.

You will now be introduced to Market Profile. What it does is to organize the information obtained by the auction process in a way that we can understand and measure price x time x volume. Once data is organized this way, a normal distribution of prices structure appears. The fun part is, you can apply the same concepts of a normal distribution into this data to make sense of it.

 By using the normal distribution, you can define what is value. I use 70% of it´ss area because this is the default parameter used when Market Profile was created. This is why you don´t need to know the reasons of different plays have to buy something to determine value. You determine value by watching what prices they are willing to pay and organizing it in a way you can understand it.

 It is now easier to see when prices are expensive or cheap, in relation to value. You probably asking yourself: why the heck is this information useful? Remember what a good deal is? To buy something that is lower than it´s current value (cheap) or to sell something higher (expensive) and buy it back when it comes back to value? 

Read more »
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Daily PM Prep - April, 22

** Preparation for Closing Session **

MARKET CONDITIONS



SPY - The down trend line is no longer relevant. Market is back in a range mode. Small up trend inside a range is forming. It is trading around the Point of Control (POC) and likely to do that for the rest of the day as no economic news to be released today. A new high maybe formed, but at that level some selling will take price down. If the low of the day is taking out, we become bearish. A stronger bullish bias will take over if we break above 156.50 and hold, but that is unlikely.

Bias: Neutral Bullish
Accuracy: 75% market made a new high and held there. Did not do much more than this.

PM Stock Selection Sheet download - slow day today. Not much going on.
Updated at 13:35

Want more information about the Stock Selection Sheet?
Legends - Click me
Read this before using the information provided in this page:
1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk. 2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The afternoon sheet will be updated between 13:00 and 14:00
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Daily AM Prep - April, 22


** Preparation for Morning Session**

MARKET CONDITIONS

World Markets News: Asian markets finished mixed as of the most recent closing prices. European markets are broadly higher today with shares in Germany leading the region. Existing Home Sales is to be released before the market opens.

Economic Calendar



SPY - Prices are gaping up breaking the down trend line. Still the volume is too low to determined if this is a movement to trust. Germany is up, but so far it is just a sign markets may stay into the range. Reference level into the morning are 156.75 and the zone between 155.50 / 155.00. If we hold above 155.50/155.00 the overall bias is Neutral Bullish, as this range is likely to be respected. If we go back below this level, this trend line break is a fake and sellers take control again. Above 157.25 we become bullish.
Bias: Neutral Bullish
Accuracy: 80% - bias as a little off, but the reading was fine.

AM Stock Selection Sheet download
Updated at 9:20

Want more information about the Stock Selection Sheet?
Legends - Click me
Read this before using the information provided in this page:
1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk.2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The morning sheet will be updated between 8:00 and 9:00
No comments:
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