Daily PM Prep - June, 03

** Preparation for Closing Session **

MARKET CONDITIONS



SPY - Not much has changed from morning analysis. Market is moving slowly down as expected and we had a morning session that rewarded the sellers. SPY already tried to go below friday´s low, but failed to continue down. There is a possibility of a neutral afternoon if we don´t hold below 166.60. An intraday bullish sign would be if we start trading above 164.25, but I think that is unlikely to happen today.
Long Term Bias: Neutral to Bearish
Short Term Bias: Bearish
Accuracy: 

PM Stock Selection Sheet download 
Updated at 13:15

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Read this before using the information provided in this page:
1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk. 2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The afternoon sheet will be updated between 13:00 and 14:00
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Daily AM Prep - June, 03

** Preparation for Morning Session**

MARKET CONDITIONS

World Markets News: Asian markets finished broadly lower today with shares in Japan leading the region. European markets are lower today with shares in France off the most. ISM Manufacturing Index to be released during market hours at 10:00. Market is expecting no change for this index.

Economic Calendar



SPY - Last trading session market broke and close below the support level at 164.00 zone suggesting a confirmation of a Lower High formation (starting a down trend) because of that the expected scenario is for it to continue down until it find buyers. A potential down channel can be seen at the chart and this would put the 161.75 area as next support to be tested. A more bullish scenario would be if we can hold this gap up (with low volume so far). Still if this happens there is a down trend line (the top of the channel) to be broken putting us back into a long term neutral scenario.

Long Term Bias: Neutral to Bearish
Short Term Bias: Bearish

Accuracy: 100%

AM Stock Selection Sheet download
Updated at 8:10

Want more information about the Stock Selection Sheet?
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Read this before using the information provided in this page:
1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk.2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The morning sheet will be updated between 8:00 and 9:00
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Trade Review - EMC - May, 30

Stock Selection Information


  • EMC increases the size of its buyback program to $6B (authorized over three years to December 2015) and says it plans to repurchase $3.5B worth of common stock by the end of FQ2 2014. The company also initiates a quarterly dividend of $0.10/share and says it plans to alter its capital structure to include more debt while still "maintaining a strong investment-grade profile." (PR)




Watch List Reason - News on the stock
Pre-Market Volume - 10%
Trading Plan - To go long above 24.25 - 

Management

Entry Setup used: big seller stepping lower


Trading Comments

Tape reading was the key here. The initial plan was to go long on the stock, but at the open there was a huge seller on the box, offering 1.500.000 shares at 25.05. So I opened a short position in front of him. It did not take long for the trade to develop. At the 24.75 level some buying took place so I closed the position. The initial plan was to just take profits on a 100 shares at this level and hold a core, but I messed up execution. When it spiked up the plan was to add, but since I had closed the position I short it again. When the 24.75 level dropped again, I planned to add to position, but my offer did not get taken. Close it when it stop moving down.
On the way up the 24.92 level was holding prices, but market was moving up and the sellers were not strong to hold prices down. When the bids lift to 24.93 a long position was opened for a scalp, expecting the 25.05 to defend the level, but he was not there anymore.
When it got to the pre-market highs sellers came back I tried a short position but got stopped out on the spike up. Too bad, cause prices drop after that.

Evaluation

My first mistake was to close the position at the 24.75 level. That was not my plan, but I hit the wrong button when executing the trade. I manage to get back in, but failed to add when my offer did not get taken and prices dropped.
Also on the way up, the long position was strong and I should´ve held it when I saw that the seller was not at the 25.05 add to the position.
At the pre-market high i should´ve shorted it again at the 25.23 level. Too bad I did not.
Even with these mistakes, I had the trade under control at all times and it was a very profitable one. 
No comments:

Daily PM Prep - May, 05

** Preparation for Closing Session **

MARKET CONDITIONS


SPY - Not much has changed from the morning analysis. As expected market continued the up move an tested the 166.50 (166.44 = today´s high so far). This was one of the potential resistance levels pointed in the morning. Mostly likely scenario for this afternoon is the market to remain neutral trading between: 165.75 and 166.50 and respect the short term up channel that is formed. If the 166.50 is broken and market start to hold above, the bias will change to bullish. If it start trading below 165.50 it would be a bearish alert, confirmed by the market making a new low for today with consequences into tomorrow´s session. Not much is expected for this afternoon.

 Long Term Bias: Neutral
Short Term Bias: Neutral Bullish
Accuracy: 100%

PM Stock Selection Sheet download 
Updated at 13:20

Want more information about the Stock Selection Sheet?
Legends - Click me
Read this before using the information provided in this page:
1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk. 2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The afternoon sheet will be updated between 13:00 and 14:00
No comments:

Daily AM Prep - May, 30

** Preparation for Morning Session**

MARKET CONDITIONS

World Markets News: Asian markets finished broadly lower today with shares in Japan leading the region.European markets are mixed. To be released before market opens: GDP (QoQ) and Initial Jobless Claims.

Economic Calendar


SPY - Yesterday in the afternoon market broke a short term down trend inside this longer term range that is in formation, because of that our short term bias is bullish. This up move may find resistance at one of the following levels: 165.50, 166.50, 167.50 or 169.00 and could provide a clearer view of the range. Also this up move may define the type of day we will have today.
The 164.00 level is still a key level. If we break below this level, a confirmation of a Lower High suggests a more bearish formation for the overall market. At this point, since on a weekly chart we are up trending, this scenario is less likely.

Long Term Bias: Neutral
Short Term Bias: Neutral to Bullish
Accuracy: 100%

AM Stock Selection Sheet download
Updated at 8:15

Want more information about the Stock Selection Sheet?
Legends - Click me
Read this before using the information provided in this page:
1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk.2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The morning sheet will be updated between 8:00 and 9:00
No comments:

Trade Review - SFD - May, 29

Stock Selection Information


  • Heard during Smithfield Foods' (SFD) conference call: Execs say the sale to a Chinese company is "good news" for the pork industry as a major U.S.-based food company ties in with an extensive Chinese distribution network. They also note Shuanghui sells in other major Asian markets such as Japan and Korea. Both CEOs reiterated that Smithfield's business and operations will remain largely the same. (webcast)
  • More on the Smithfield Foods (SFD) acquisition: Under the seemingly generous terms of its deal to be acquired by Shuanghui International, no Smithfield facilities or locations will be closed and the existing management team will remain in place. The board indicates it expects resistance from U.S. regulators and has a breakup fee embedded as part of the deal - but with pork products flowing from the U.S. to China - (instead of the reverse) - landing approval may be easier than in prior U.S.-China mergers. SFD +25.1% to $32.49, 4.6% below the deal price.
  • Smithfield Foods (SFD) confirms it sold itself to Shuanghui International for $34 per share in a deal valued at $7.1B. The transaction is slated to close in the second half of 2013 after regulators weigh in. SFD +25.9% premarket to $32.70.
  • UPDATE: Shuanghui Intl., Smithfield Foods Agrees to Combination, SFD Holders Will Receive $34/Share in Cash
  • Smithfield Foods (SFD) is close to selling itself to China's Shineway, according to a WSJ report. A deal would land in the $4.5B to $5B range to mark a 25% to 30% premium over Smithfield's closing yesterday. SFD +23.2% premarket to $31.99.


Watch List Reason - Had relevant news in the morning, big gap up and great pre-market volume
Pre-Market Volume - 320%
Trading Plan - To go long above 27.00

Management

Entry Setup used: Many different entries.


Trading Comments

Tape reading was extremely useful today with this stock. It was clear that there was a very strong buyer at the stock. From time to time we could see prints greater or equal a 1500 done at the bid, and prices would just not drop. That gave me a lot of confidence to trade the stock in the morning. First half hour I don´t care about about what the market is doing, after that it confirmed that would try to move higher, which also helped the confidence in the up move. So I was building a position around and had a good position when above the up trend line. I was expecting it to explode at some point due to the amount of volume the buyers were taking, which never happened when I was positioned. When it broke the up trend and the 32.58 buyer dropped I closed the position with some profit.

Evaluation

I did a great job in sizing up and building the position at the stock. My trading plan was good and I executed it correctly, the trade just did not worked as expected. I was in control of my risk and adding / taking profits as the stock was moving up, manage to have a very strong position with a very good price on the stock.
Tape reading was critical to this trade cause I could see the buying pressure on the stock.
I also manage to be positive on the stock and for future trades, if I am able to execute as well as I did today, I am sure it will pay off big time.
Note: in the afternoon the stock move a 1.25 on an explosive move, probably because of the amount of buyer it had in the morning.
No comments:

Daily PM Prep - May, 29

** Preparation for Closing Session **

MARKET CONDITIONS



SPY - Tried to move higher in the morning, but respected the trend down (short term). The key level is still the 164.00. If we break below 164.50 the down move will continue, but this is likely to happen only tomorrow. The most likely scenario is the market to stay between 165.75 and 164.50 today.
Long Term Bias: Neutral
Short Term Bias: Neutral to Bearish
Accuracy: 

PM Stock Selection Sheet download
Updated at 13:40

Want more information about the Stock Selection Sheet?
Legends - Click me
Read this before using the information provided in this page:
1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk. 2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The afternoon sheet will be updated between 13:00 and 14:00
No comments:
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