Daily PM Prep - April, 11

** Prep for Closing Session **

MARKET CONDITIONS




SPY - Market still treding up searching for sellers. The target for this move is still 160.75. The first trend line is market momentum. If broken, market will begin a slower move. Second trend line is the other important referenc point. As long we are above 158.25 this expectation is valid. This level is important because it is also a support for the bull flag that broke up.
Bias: Bullish
Accuracy: 100% good reading of market movement.

PM Stock Selection Sheet download - sheet has a lot of names, so a secondary filter was used. Stocks that had move more than 2 times it´s ATR and stocks that had fewer volume will be ignored.

Updated at 14:00

Want more information about the Stock Selection Sheet?
Legends - Click me
Read this before using the information provided in this page:

  1. Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk
  2. Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.
  3. The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.
  4. The morning sheet will be updated between 8:00 and 9:00
  5. The afternoon sheet will be updated between 13:00 and 14:00
No comments:

Daily AM Prep, April 11

** Prep for Morning Session**

MARKET CONDITIONS

World Markets News: European markets are higher today. Asian markets finished broadly higher. This is a reaction to yesterday´s movement in the US. Before the open today, Initial Jobless Claims will be released. 

Economic Calendar



SPY - Market has broken up it´s range and it is now in trend mode. If we go back below 157.25 and hold, this would be the only bearish scenario for today, where the bulls would be trapped, causing a selling panic. Usually after a strong day, neutral movement is expected, but overall the market is bullish. Target for this move is around 160.75 (current range projection up). Watch for the trend lines, cause momentum could be strong on the way up.
Bias: Bullish
Accuracy: 100%

AM Stock Selection Sheet download
Updated at 8:30

Want more information about the Stock Selection Sheet?
Legends - Click me
Read this before using the information provided in this page:

  1. Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk
  2. Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.
  3. The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.
  4. The morning sheet will be updated between 8:00 and 9:00
  5. The afternoon sheet will be updated between 13:00 and 14:00
No comments:

Daily AM Prep, April 10

** Prep for Morning Session**

MARKET CONDITIONS

World Markets News: European markets are broadly higher today with shares in Germany leading the region.Germany is the strong economy in the Euro Zone, so this is a very good sign. Asian markets finished higher today with shares in Hong Kong leading the region. Be aware of FOMC Meeting Minutes at 14:00.

Economic Calendar


SPY - Market is still in range 157.25 | 153.25. The important levels into the open will be 157.25 and 156.75. If we hold above 157.25 the bias will be very bullish and I could also look for market plays, since we would change from range mode to trend mode. As long as the trend line up is respect we remain bullish. Bearish only if we go below 156.50 and hold.

Bias: Bullish
Accuracy:

AM Stock Selection Sheet download
Updated at 8:00

Want more information about the Stock Selection Sheet?
Legends - Click me
Read this before using the information provided in this page:

  1. Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk
  2. Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.
  3. The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.
  4. The morning sheet will be updated between 8:00 and 9:00
  5. The afternoon sheet will be updated between 13:00 and 14:00
No comments:

Trade Review II - April, 09

Stock Selection Information

No relevant news on the stock.



Watch List Reason - Long term alert above 19.10
Pre-Market Volume - 0.61%
Trading Plan - 15 min. range - Res > 19.1 | Sup < 18.25

Management

Entry Setup used: Open Range at resistance break up


Trading Comments

It was clear the presence of buyers in the tape. Lots of green prints and did not spend much type below 19.10. In fact it was not being able to hold an offer bellow that level. So I got in as it breaks up the open range. First lot was a momentum trade and I held a core for a larger move. 

Evaluation

The trade was good. Entry points and exits. I failed to get back in the stock as it was consolidating above an important resistance. After 10:00 I have to look for this consolidation and start build a position to capture the trend 10:30 to 11:30 trend. 
No comments:

Trade Review I - April, 09

Stock Selection Information

No relevant news on the stock




Watch List Reason - 52h - it was above the high of the last 52 weeks.
Pre-Market Volume - N/A
Trading Plan - 60Range if holds above Res > 47.75

Management

Entry Setup used: Consolidation above resistance


Trading Comments

The stock was very strong. The entry were on the break of the consolidation that was happening with volume and with a lot of green prints (people willing to buy at the offer). At 48.15 the offer was held but I was in for a larger move. When buyers came back at the pull back I added to the position. 

Evaluation

First I need to improve entering on the bottom of the consolidation. This is were the best risk / reward entry is and I should start building a position, add to the position on the break. I entered on the break, with 100 shares at 48.05 so when the offer was held at 48.15 I could not take profits.
Added to the position on the pull back at 48.08. Took profits when seller appears at 48.13 and close all of it at 48.07. It was a good trade. 
No comments:

Daily PM Prep - April, 09

** Prep for Closing Session **

MARKET CONDITIONS



SPY - Still in range respecting the shorter term up trend line. The key inflections now are the low of the day 156.00 and 156.75. If we break down 156 it´s likely to test the Point of Control at 155.50. If we break above 156.75 and holds above this level, it is a bullish sign. Could even break above 157.25, where we would become very bullish. Market would change from range mode to trend up mode.

Bias: Neutral
Accuracy: 100% - market when abot 156.75 and held. There is not enough time to confirm a break of 157.20. Keep an eye for that tomorrow.

PM Stock Selection Sheet download
Updated at 13:20

Want more information about the Stock Selection Sheet?
Legends - Click me
Read this before using the information provided in this page:

  1. Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk
  2. Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.
  3. The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.
  4. The morning sheet will be updated between 8:00 and 9:00
  5. The afternoon sheet will be updated between 13:00 and 14:00
No comments:

Building blocks - Price

So, before we get deeper into technical analysis or market profile, let´s understand it´s building blocks for both of them - price, volume and time.

"Economic theory asserts that in a free market economy the market price reflects interaction between supply and demand: the price is set so as to equate the quantity being supplied and that being demanded." (from Wikipedia)

 To understand how price works, let´s use an example. The Ipad example from the "Being a Trader, what does it mean?". An Ipad today costs U$400 at Apple Store, so this is our reference (our value for now). Let´s assume we have a buyer and a seller and they meet at the Apple Market Place. This is a fictitious market where Apple maniacs go to exchange goods. 

The buyer wants to find a "good deal" to acquire his Ipad, meaning he wants to pay less then U$400, otherwise he would just go to an Apple store. He is willing to pay up to U$300 for his Ipad. On the other side, the seller would like to sell it for more then U$400, but the only way he can do that (for now) is if he finds a sucker. So for the purpose of this article we will assume that both of our players are informed and the Ipad value is U$400 so no external factor will change this value. The seller would not accept less then U$350.

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