Daily AM Prep - June, 24

** Preparation for Morning Session**

MARKET CONDITIONS

World Markets News: Asian markets finished sharply lower today with shares in China leading the region. European markets are sharply lower today with shares in France off the most. 

Economic Calendar



SPY - World markets continue moving lower, but the SPY need some rest, before it can continue moving lower. The expected support for the down move held, forming a confluence zone with the down channel.
1-) Neutral (50%) - The fact that it is Monday morning and market would benefit a lot from a consolidation at this level before moving lower, gives this scenario greater chance of happening. As long as we are between 160.25 and 158.00 this scenario is on.
2-) Bullish (30%) - After testing the base of the channel and holding, the next expected move is for it to test the top of the channel. This could affect the long term bias, as the market get back inside a long term range. It is hard to decide if this is just a pull back of the down trend or a long term fail break down of the range (160.25 / 169.00), so the range could change to this new unfair low formed at 158.00.
2-) Bearish (20%) - Market could gap down but be suspicious for a gap fill. Need some rest before moving lower. After 10:00 if is still moving down, go with it, cause market is weaker than first thought.

Long Term Bias: Bearish
Short Term Bias: Neutral
Accuracy:

AM Stock Selection Sheet download
Updated at 7:25

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Read this before using the information provided in this page:
1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk.2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The morning sheet will be updated between 8:00 and 9:00
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Daily AM Prep - June, 21

** Preparation for Morning Session**

MARKET CONDITIONS

World Markets News: Asian markets finished mixed as of the most recent closing prices.European markets are higher today with shares in London leading the region.

Economic Calendar



SPY - Important down move yesterday, with market breaking down a longer trend up line and the bottom of a range and closing near the low with big volume. This move changed my long term bias to bearish. Blue lines are the next potential supports for the down move.
1-) Neutral (50%) - This scenario suggests that market will trade today between 158.00 and 160.25. Shorting resistances would be a good trading plan or some small bounce up on the open could provide some long opportunities (with short targets).
2-) Bearish (25%) - The most clear support for the down move is at 154.00, so market could also continue its down move to that level.
3-) Bullish (25%) - If this happen we need to identify what is me market doing. It would be hard to tell at this point if this up move is a fake break down of the range or a bounce/pull back from the down trend break. Must be very careful with long positions in this scenario.
Long Term Bias: Bearish
Short Term Bias: Neutral
Accuracy:

AM Stock Selection Sheet download
Updated at 8:30

Want more information about the Stock Selection Sheet?
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Read this before using the information provided in this page:
1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk.2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The morning sheet will be updated between 8:00 and 9:00
No comments:

Daily AM Prep - June, 20

** Preparation for Morning Session**

MARKET CONDITIONS

World Markets News: Asian markets finished sharply lower today with shares in Hong Kong leading the region.. European markets are sharply lower today with shares in France off the most. 

  • 8:30 - Initial Jobless Claims - Bearish expectation
  • 10:00 - Existing Home Sales - Bullish expectation


Economic Calendar



SPY - Market had a bearish reaction to Bernake Speech yesterday, dropping sharply and breaking the small up trend.
1 - ) Neutral (45%)- After a strong down move a sideways move is expected, but it is a bit unclear were the supports for a this move would be. Look for gap fillings, but take profits faster on long trades.
2-) Bearish (40%) - Would be the follow through of yesterday move. This could put the market into a oversold level too fast and some kind of bounce. Watch for momentum plays and short trades.
3-) Bullish (15%) - Having a bullish reaction after this strong down move would show buyers strength, but it is unlikely to happen. This is the 3rd time we have a failed down trend break and market can not hold the level, this is why I don´t believe much this will happen today.

 Long Term Bias: Neutral
Short Term Bias: Bearish
Accuracy: 85%

AM Stock Selection Sheet download
Updated at 7:45

Want more information about the Stock Selection Sheet?
Legends - Click me
Read this before using the information provided in this page:
1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk.2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The morning sheet will be updated between 8:00 and 9:00
No comments:

Daily AM Prep - June, 19

** Preparation for Morning Session**

MARKET CONDITIONS

World Markets News: Asian markets finished mixed as of the most recent closing prices. European markets are mixed. The DAX is higher by 0.15%, while the FTSE 100 is leading the CAC 40 lower. Important news release today:

  • 15:00 - FOMC Statement
  • 15:00 - Interest Rate Decision
  • 15:30 - Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks - Any comments from Bernanke suggesting that the Fed's bond-buying program end is near would likely lead to significant decline for US indexes.

Economic Calendar



SPY - Today is an important day, Bernake speaks at 15:30 and this is likely to move the market. So investors will likely wait for him to speak in order to open or close positions. Take that into consideration before open a trade. Increased volatility is also expected today.
1-) Neutral - till 2:30 p.m. market is likely to stay neutral inside the 166.50 / 165.25 level, cause investor will be waiting for Bernake to speak first. Look for volatility and for stocks that are moving with volume in this scenario.
2-) Bullish - Market could continue moving up, anticipating any good news from today´s event. In that case follow the reaction to the news on the long side, but be careful cause during his speech things may turn bad, if the expected news is not confirmed.
3-) Bearish - At the open I don´t think this scenario is likely to happen . This will only happen if  Fed's bond-buying program is turned off. There one situation that should be considered: the program is turned off and the reaction is positive. This would mean market is extremely strong.

Long Term Bias: Neutral
Short Term Bias: Neutral / Bearish
Accuracy: 50%

AM Stock Selection Sheet download
Updated at 8:00

Want more information about the Stock Selection Sheet?
Legends - Click me
Read this before using the information provided in this page:
1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk.2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The morning sheet will be updated between 8:00 and 9:00
No comments:

Daily AM Prep - June, 18

** Preparation for Morning Session**

MARKET CONDITIONS

World Markets News: Asian markets finished mixed as of the most recent closing prices. European markets are mixed today. Core CPI (MoM) to be released before market opens.

Economic Calendar



SPY - Yesterday gaped up breaking the down trend. This gap provided support for the afternoon down move.
1-) Neutral - This scenario suggests market will move sideways respecting yestereday´s high and low and not moving much. If it does that, trading will be a little bit more difficult. Choose well the trades I´ll be entering, cause it is unlikely to have momentum at the open.
2-) Bullish - After breaking a trend line down, the expectation is for it to move higher. If yestereday´s high is taken out be prepared for a strong up move. Favor long trades and go for longer profit targets.
3-) Neutral Bearish - This scenario suggests that there was no conviction in the trend break, so start looking for shorts, but be careful for it not to be a trap. If it continues lower into scenario #4, will be in great position
4-) Bearish - if this is a fake break again, then things might get ugly. Don´t think this is a very probable scenario, but it is possible. This would be more of an evolution of scenario #3.

Long Term Bias: Neutral
Short Term Bias: Neutral / Bullish
Accuracy: 95%

AM Stock Selection Sheet download
Updated at 7:25

Want more information about the Stock Selection Sheet?
Legends - Click me
Read this before using the information provided in this page:
1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk.2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The morning sheet will be updated between 8:00 and 9:00
No comments:

Daily AM Prep - June, 17

** Preparation for Morning Session**

MARKET CONDITIONS

World Markets News: Asian markets finished broadly higher today with shares in Japan leading the region. European markets are higher today with shares in Germany leading the region. 

Economic Calendar



SPY - World markets being on the green and strong suggesting a bullish open for today.
1- Bullish - Monday morning is usually a slower session, but markets around the world are strong, so the chance of breaking the down trend formed last session is increased. In this case need to watch how market behaves at the following level: 165.25 / 166.50. Could consolidate at the 165.25 level before breaking up.
2- Neutral - a more neutral scenario would be for it to continue in the range between 161.50 / 165.25. At first respecting the down trend. If breaks the down trend, need to re-evaluate .
3- Bearish - If take down the 161.25, level the range would be extended down to 165.25 / 160.25 with a good possibility of it breaking to the down side latter on.

Long Term Bias: Neutral
Short Term Bias: Bullish
Accuracy: 60%

AM Stock Selection Sheet download
Updated at 7:15

Want more information about the Stock Selection Sheet?
Legends - Click me
Read this before using the information provided in this page:
1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk.2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The morning sheet will be updated between 8:00 and 9:00
No comments:

Daily AM Prep - June, 14

** Preparation for Morning Session**

MARKET CONDITIONS

World Markets News: Asian markets finished broadly higher today with shares in Japan leading the region. European markets are higher today with shares in Germany leading the region. 

Economic Calendar



SPY - Yesterday market tested the 160.25 level during pre-market, and move higher from there, breaking the zone we thought would provide resistance to it. That was an unexpected scenario. It was a mix of scenario #1 and scenario #3. An smaller range can be seen between 165.25 and 161.50. World markets suggests this up move is likely to continue.
1-) Bullish - continues moving higher today, consolidates near the 165.25 before breaking higher. This break could occur afternoon or probably during next session. Since Friday afternoon and Monday morning are usually slow, this scenario would fit perfectly. Favor long trades.
2-) Strong Bullish - Market is coming from the bottom of the range and if it breaks the 165.25 level, mostly likely will do a pull back (could also be a consolidation) before continue it´s up move. Favor long trades.
3-) Neutral - This scenario suggests the market being not controlled  by buyers or sellers and will trade around (no conviction) between the 165.25 and 161.50 range. Play the extremes fading would be wise.
4-) Bearish - If sellers were in control market would´ve moved lower yesterday as expected. Since it tested the support and move higher, this scenario is not likely to happen.

Long Term Bias: Neutral
Short Term Bias: Bullish
Accuracy: 75%

AM Stock Selection Sheet download
Updated at 8:35

Want more information about the Stock Selection Sheet?
Legends - Click me
Read this before using the information provided in this page:
1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk.2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The morning sheet will be updated between 8:00 and 9:00
No comments:
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