Daily AM Prep - June, 19

** Preparation for Morning Session**

MARKET CONDITIONS

World Markets News: Asian markets finished mixed as of the most recent closing prices. European markets are mixed. The DAX is higher by 0.15%, while the FTSE 100 is leading the CAC 40 lower. Important news release today:

  • 15:00 - FOMC Statement
  • 15:00 - Interest Rate Decision
  • 15:30 - Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks - Any comments from Bernanke suggesting that the Fed's bond-buying program end is near would likely lead to significant decline for US indexes.

Economic Calendar



SPY - Today is an important day, Bernake speaks at 15:30 and this is likely to move the market. So investors will likely wait for him to speak in order to open or close positions. Take that into consideration before open a trade. Increased volatility is also expected today.
1-) Neutral - till 2:30 p.m. market is likely to stay neutral inside the 166.50 / 165.25 level, cause investor will be waiting for Bernake to speak first. Look for volatility and for stocks that are moving with volume in this scenario.
2-) Bullish - Market could continue moving up, anticipating any good news from today´s event. In that case follow the reaction to the news on the long side, but be careful cause during his speech things may turn bad, if the expected news is not confirmed.
3-) Bearish - At the open I don´t think this scenario is likely to happen . This will only happen if  Fed's bond-buying program is turned off. There one situation that should be considered: the program is turned off and the reaction is positive. This would mean market is extremely strong.

Long Term Bias: Neutral
Short Term Bias: Neutral / Bearish
Accuracy: 50%

AM Stock Selection Sheet download
Updated at 8:00

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Read this before using the information provided in this page:
1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk.2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The morning sheet will be updated between 8:00 and 9:00
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Daily AM Prep - June, 18

** Preparation for Morning Session**

MARKET CONDITIONS

World Markets News: Asian markets finished mixed as of the most recent closing prices. European markets are mixed today. Core CPI (MoM) to be released before market opens.

Economic Calendar



SPY - Yesterday gaped up breaking the down trend. This gap provided support for the afternoon down move.
1-) Neutral - This scenario suggests market will move sideways respecting yestereday´s high and low and not moving much. If it does that, trading will be a little bit more difficult. Choose well the trades I´ll be entering, cause it is unlikely to have momentum at the open.
2-) Bullish - After breaking a trend line down, the expectation is for it to move higher. If yestereday´s high is taken out be prepared for a strong up move. Favor long trades and go for longer profit targets.
3-) Neutral Bearish - This scenario suggests that there was no conviction in the trend break, so start looking for shorts, but be careful for it not to be a trap. If it continues lower into scenario #4, will be in great position
4-) Bearish - if this is a fake break again, then things might get ugly. Don´t think this is a very probable scenario, but it is possible. This would be more of an evolution of scenario #3.

Long Term Bias: Neutral
Short Term Bias: Neutral / Bullish
Accuracy: 95%

AM Stock Selection Sheet download
Updated at 7:25

Want more information about the Stock Selection Sheet?
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Read this before using the information provided in this page:
1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk.2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The morning sheet will be updated between 8:00 and 9:00
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Daily AM Prep - June, 17

** Preparation for Morning Session**

MARKET CONDITIONS

World Markets News: Asian markets finished broadly higher today with shares in Japan leading the region. European markets are higher today with shares in Germany leading the region. 

Economic Calendar



SPY - World markets being on the green and strong suggesting a bullish open for today.
1- Bullish - Monday morning is usually a slower session, but markets around the world are strong, so the chance of breaking the down trend formed last session is increased. In this case need to watch how market behaves at the following level: 165.25 / 166.50. Could consolidate at the 165.25 level before breaking up.
2- Neutral - a more neutral scenario would be for it to continue in the range between 161.50 / 165.25. At first respecting the down trend. If breaks the down trend, need to re-evaluate .
3- Bearish - If take down the 161.25, level the range would be extended down to 165.25 / 160.25 with a good possibility of it breaking to the down side latter on.

Long Term Bias: Neutral
Short Term Bias: Bullish
Accuracy: 60%

AM Stock Selection Sheet download
Updated at 7:15

Want more information about the Stock Selection Sheet?
Legends - Click me
Read this before using the information provided in this page:
1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk.2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The morning sheet will be updated between 8:00 and 9:00
No comments:

Daily AM Prep - June, 14

** Preparation for Morning Session**

MARKET CONDITIONS

World Markets News: Asian markets finished broadly higher today with shares in Japan leading the region. European markets are higher today with shares in Germany leading the region. 

Economic Calendar



SPY - Yesterday market tested the 160.25 level during pre-market, and move higher from there, breaking the zone we thought would provide resistance to it. That was an unexpected scenario. It was a mix of scenario #1 and scenario #3. An smaller range can be seen between 165.25 and 161.50. World markets suggests this up move is likely to continue.
1-) Bullish - continues moving higher today, consolidates near the 165.25 before breaking higher. This break could occur afternoon or probably during next session. Since Friday afternoon and Monday morning are usually slow, this scenario would fit perfectly. Favor long trades.
2-) Strong Bullish - Market is coming from the bottom of the range and if it breaks the 165.25 level, mostly likely will do a pull back (could also be a consolidation) before continue it´s up move. Favor long trades.
3-) Neutral - This scenario suggests the market being not controlled  by buyers or sellers and will trade around (no conviction) between the 165.25 and 161.50 range. Play the extremes fading would be wise.
4-) Bearish - If sellers were in control market would´ve moved lower yesterday as expected. Since it tested the support and move higher, this scenario is not likely to happen.

Long Term Bias: Neutral
Short Term Bias: Bullish
Accuracy: 75%

AM Stock Selection Sheet download
Updated at 8:35

Want more information about the Stock Selection Sheet?
Legends - Click me
Read this before using the information provided in this page:
1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk.2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The morning sheet will be updated between 8:00 and 9:00
No comments:

Daily AM Prep - June, 13

** Preparation for Morning Session**

MARKET CONDITIONS

World Markets News: Asian markets finished sharply lower today with shares in Japan leading the region. European markets are broadly lower today with shares in Germany off the most. Be aware of the following indicators to be released before market opens.

  • Core Retail Sales (MoM) 
  • Initial Jobless Claims
  • Retail Sales (MoM)


Economic Calendar




SPY - Could not hold above the top of the channel and confirm the break up was a fake one. Sellers manage to bring prices down and bulls were trapped.
1- Bearish - after 3 failed attempts to go higher and break the top of the channel, I believe that there are more people trapped on long positions. This is why I think this down move has potential to continue till the 160.25 level.
2- Neutral - usually after a strong day down, come a inside day or a more neutral day, where the market rests. So this is my second scenario of choice. The reason it is not my first choice was explained above.
3- Bullish - unlikely to happen after 3 attempts failed to break up. Now there is a zone of resistance: 163.10 / 162.70 for the market to break before we can have a bullish bias.

Long Term Bias: Neutral
Short Term Bias: Bearish 
Accuracy:

AM Stock Selection Sheet download
Updated at 8:00

Want more information about the Stock Selection Sheet?
Legends - Click me
Read this before using the information provided in this page:
1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk.2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The morning sheet will be updated between 8:00 and 9:00
No comments:

Daily AM Prep - June, 12

** Preparation for Morning Session**

MARKET CONDITIONS

World Markets News: Asian markets finished broadly lower today with shares in China leading the region. European markets are higher today with shares in France leading the region.

Economic Calendar



SPY - Yesterday market move lower, bounce from a support area, but had no follow through. It could not hold above the top of the channel. Because of that a bullish scenario today seems unlikely.The path with least resistance seems to be down
1- Bearish: for this scenario to happen, prices must start holding below 162.70. A consolidation between 162.70 and 163.10 would also fit this scenario if followed by a break down. Favor short trades, losing supports.
2- Neutral: This scenario has a lot of resistances to break. We have yesterday´s high (164.50), the point of control (164.80) and the high of the previous attempted break up (165.30). Could trade short or long trades in this scenario.
Obs.: The probability between scenario #1 and #2 are not far apart. It is a bit unclear which one to choose from.World markets do not give any clues also.

3- Bullish: Market would need to move a lot for this scenario to happen and it is unlikely for this to happen today.

Long Term Bias: Neutral
Short Term Bias: Bearish or Neutral
Accuracy:100%

AM Stock Selection Sheet download
Updated at 8:15

Want more information about the Stock Selection Sheet?
Legends - Click me
Read this before using the information provided in this page:
1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk.2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The morning sheet will be updated between 8:00 and 9:00
No comments:

Daily PM Prep - June, 11

** Preparation for Closing Session **

MARKET CONDITIONS



SPY - The morning scenario #2 was the selected path. It tried to go below yesterday´s low, but at the gap buyers came in, holding prices. We are now trading inside yesterday´s range, but this fail to move lower has some bullish implications.
1- Bullish - I don´t thing it will break higher today, but the fact that it did not fall at the open (failed to go down),  suggests the break of the down channel was good and we are likely to move higher. A consolidation today around the point of control at 164.75 level would be preparing for a break tomorrow.
2/3 - Neutral - Scenarios 2 and 3 suggests market will hold between 163.25 and 165.30. Scenario #2 would be a little more bullish than #3, but they are both in a "neutral" state. Trading at the extremes of the ranges on this scenario, long or short trades would be a smart idea. Also watch which side this range would break and play along with it.
4- Bearish - Unlikely to happen. World markets were down, it had broken yesterday´s low, everything was setup for it to drop, but didn´t. Meaning buyers are at this level. They were not desperate to sell their positions opened when the gap up happen and more buyers jumped in today.
Long Term Bias: Neutral
Short Term Bias: Neutral Bullish
Accuracy: 50%

PM Stock Selection Sheet download
Updated at 13:15

Want more information about the Stock Selection Sheet?
Legends - Click me
Read this before using the information provided in this page:
1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk. 2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The afternoon sheet will be updated between 13:00 and 14:00
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