Daily AM Prep - June, 13

** Preparation for Morning Session**

MARKET CONDITIONS

World Markets News: Asian markets finished sharply lower today with shares in Japan leading the region. European markets are broadly lower today with shares in Germany off the most. Be aware of the following indicators to be released before market opens.

  • Core Retail Sales (MoM) 
  • Initial Jobless Claims
  • Retail Sales (MoM)


Economic Calendar




SPY - Could not hold above the top of the channel and confirm the break up was a fake one. Sellers manage to bring prices down and bulls were trapped.
1- Bearish - after 3 failed attempts to go higher and break the top of the channel, I believe that there are more people trapped on long positions. This is why I think this down move has potential to continue till the 160.25 level.
2- Neutral - usually after a strong day down, come a inside day or a more neutral day, where the market rests. So this is my second scenario of choice. The reason it is not my first choice was explained above.
3- Bullish - unlikely to happen after 3 attempts failed to break up. Now there is a zone of resistance: 163.10 / 162.70 for the market to break before we can have a bullish bias.

Long Term Bias: Neutral
Short Term Bias: Bearish 
Accuracy:

AM Stock Selection Sheet download
Updated at 8:00

Want more information about the Stock Selection Sheet?
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Read this before using the information provided in this page:
1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk.2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The morning sheet will be updated between 8:00 and 9:00
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Daily AM Prep - June, 12

** Preparation for Morning Session**

MARKET CONDITIONS

World Markets News: Asian markets finished broadly lower today with shares in China leading the region. European markets are higher today with shares in France leading the region.

Economic Calendar



SPY - Yesterday market move lower, bounce from a support area, but had no follow through. It could not hold above the top of the channel. Because of that a bullish scenario today seems unlikely.The path with least resistance seems to be down
1- Bearish: for this scenario to happen, prices must start holding below 162.70. A consolidation between 162.70 and 163.10 would also fit this scenario if followed by a break down. Favor short trades, losing supports.
2- Neutral: This scenario has a lot of resistances to break. We have yesterday´s high (164.50), the point of control (164.80) and the high of the previous attempted break up (165.30). Could trade short or long trades in this scenario.
Obs.: The probability between scenario #1 and #2 are not far apart. It is a bit unclear which one to choose from.World markets do not give any clues also.

3- Bullish: Market would need to move a lot for this scenario to happen and it is unlikely for this to happen today.

Long Term Bias: Neutral
Short Term Bias: Bearish or Neutral
Accuracy:100%

AM Stock Selection Sheet download
Updated at 8:15

Want more information about the Stock Selection Sheet?
Legends - Click me
Read this before using the information provided in this page:
1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk.2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The morning sheet will be updated between 8:00 and 9:00
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Daily PM Prep - June, 11

** Preparation for Closing Session **

MARKET CONDITIONS



SPY - The morning scenario #2 was the selected path. It tried to go below yesterday´s low, but at the gap buyers came in, holding prices. We are now trading inside yesterday´s range, but this fail to move lower has some bullish implications.
1- Bullish - I don´t thing it will break higher today, but the fact that it did not fall at the open (failed to go down),  suggests the break of the down channel was good and we are likely to move higher. A consolidation today around the point of control at 164.75 level would be preparing for a break tomorrow.
2/3 - Neutral - Scenarios 2 and 3 suggests market will hold between 163.25 and 165.30. Scenario #2 would be a little more bullish than #3, but they are both in a "neutral" state. Trading at the extremes of the ranges on this scenario, long or short trades would be a smart idea. Also watch which side this range would break and play along with it.
4- Bearish - Unlikely to happen. World markets were down, it had broken yesterday´s low, everything was setup for it to drop, but didn´t. Meaning buyers are at this level. They were not desperate to sell their positions opened when the gap up happen and more buyers jumped in today.
Long Term Bias: Neutral
Short Term Bias: Neutral Bullish
Accuracy: 50%

PM Stock Selection Sheet download
Updated at 13:15

Want more information about the Stock Selection Sheet?
Legends - Click me
Read this before using the information provided in this page:
1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk. 2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The afternoon sheet will be updated between 13:00 and 14:00
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Daily AM Prep - June, 11

** Preparation for Morning Session**

MARKET CONDITIONS

World Markets News: Asian markets finished sharply lower today with shares in Japan leading the region. European markets are sharply lower today with shares in France off the most.

Economic Calendar



SPY - World markets are all red with strong down movements, but the down channel in the SPY was broken up. Is this a fake break up?
1- Neutral with bullish implications: since we broke the down channel up, but the markets around the world are all red, this is the most expected scenarios. Prices will trade around the point of control between 163.75 and 165.30 for this scenario to be valid. It would be a bullish sign at first, confirming the break of the down channel, so look favor long trades, but allowed to take the short side as well.
2- Neutral bearish - This scenario would make me question the break up of the down channel, but still would have the 162.70 level as a resistance. Watch how it bounces from this level to measure bulls strength to determine the next likely path. Favor short trades, but be careful with the bounce.
3- Bearish - The bearish scenario is possible because world markets are all in the red zone. Bulls would be trapped because of the fake break up of the down channel, causing prices to sell off. At the 162.70 a small pull back or consolidation could happen before the market breaks down to test the 160.25 level.
4- Bullish - High of the previous day is taken out and would be the confirmation of the up break of the down channel. Favor long trades and be very careful to short at this scenario.

Long Term Bias: Neutral
Short Term Bias: Neutral 
Accuracy: 80% 

AM Stock Selection Sheet download
Updated at 9:15

Want more information about the Stock Selection Sheet?
Legends - Click me
Read this before using the information provided in this page:
1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk.2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The morning sheet will be updated between 8:00 and 9:00
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About AM and PM preparation - Scenarios

I think it is important to explain the changes I am making to my AM and PM preparation, so people can understand it.
I want to make it clear that my idea with the morning sheet is not to forecast the market, but to be prepare for it. Some when they look at this chart may say: "Ok, you´ve guessed that the market could go higher, go neutral and go bearish. It´s impossible to be wrong!!!". That is true, but I do not care to be right or wrong. I am not a fortune teller,  that´s not my goal with this.


So you might ask, what I am trying to achieve with this?

My job as a trades is to be prepared for whatever happens and to make money from the opportunities the market throw at me. The more money the better, but the only problem is sometimes the market is just not good and the best thing to do is to stay out. If you avoid losing, you also make money.

I came to realize from my trades in the past that I do not trade well when the market is sideways moving very little. Market does not give me many (or any) good opportunities, so the best thing for me is to stay out. I could also try to find a different way to trade this type of market which is exactly what I am trying to work on.

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Daily PM Prep - June, 10

** Preparation for Closing Session **

MARKET CONDITIONS


SPY - Is following the trading scenario #2 of the morning analysis. It is expected to remain neutral for the rest of the day. I do not see too much strength today. In days like this I do not trade well, so the best thing to do is to wait for something really great to happen.
1- Market to remain trading between correct day´s high and the 163.80 level. This could be a pull back from the channel break up, with follow up to the upside tomorrow. It depends how much it will pull back.
2- If market makes a new high today, we could test the 166.50 and the 167.75 level. This scenario would favor trades on the long side. New highs followed by consolidation above it could provide good entries.
3- This scenario is considered a neutral bearish and the gap at the chart must hold prices for it to provide trading opportunities. Could enter short at the begging of the move, but the 162.25 level must be watched, since prices could bounce back up fast.
4- Most bearish scenario and most unlike to me. If the 162.25 do not hold, buyers will be trapped, causing prices to fall fast to the previous support at 160.25 (maybe even lower). Favor short trades if this start to happens.

 Long Term Bias: Neutral
Short Term Bias: Neutral bullish
Accuracy: 100%

PM Stock Selection Sheet download
Updated at 13:20

Want more information about the Stock Selection Sheet?
Legends - Click me
Read this before using the information provided in this page:
1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk. 2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The afternoon sheet will be updated between 13:00 and 14:00
No comments:

Daily AM Prep - June, 10

** Preparation for Morning Session**

MARKET CONDITIONS

World Markets News: Asian markets finished mixed as of the most recent closing prices. European markets are mixed today, with DAX (Germany) positive. 

Economic Calendar



SPY - Seems to be breaking up the down channel, going into a new pattern. Listed scenarios
1- Market takes the previous high and move up to next resistance levels at 166.50 / 167.75. This would favor long trades and is to me the mostly likely scenario.
2- A more neutral  approach is for it to trade around the point of control with low volatility. In this scenario trade only stocks that are moving and stays away from small open ranges
3- A test and reverse scenario would be for the market to break below the previous low, but find support at the 162.60 level and move back above the low. In this case, to go long on support plays are a good choice.
4- This is the more bearish scenario and to me the least possible. It takes the low of previous session and the 162.60 do not hold prices. Meaning this gap was a failure and bull would be trapped, causing a selling strong move down to test the 160.25, maybe even lower.

Long Term Bias: Neutral
Short Term Bias: Bullish / Neutral

Accuracy: 85%

AM Stock Selection Sheet download - I am adding some information into the sheet. Still under test.
Updated at 8:50

Want more information about the Stock Selection Sheet?
Legends - Click me
Read this before using the information provided in this page:
1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk.2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The morning sheet will be updated between 8:00 and 9:00
No comments:
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