Daily AM Prep - July, 10

** Preparation for Morning Session**

MARKET CONDITIONS

World Markets News: Asian markets finished mixed as of the most recent closing prices. European markets are lower today with shares in London off the most. 

  • 14:00 - FOMC Meeting Minutes
  • 16:10 - Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks 


Economic Calendar

SPY - Broke the long term down trend and the question is: will it hold? This change the long term scenario to a neutral and prices are inside a bigger range. A pull back from this level to test the broken down trend would be healthy.
1-) Neutral Bearish (50%)- even know this is a bearish move, if it can hold above the 163.50, this move would be a pull back and have bullish long term implications. It is the most expected scenario.Trade on the short side, but flip it to long once the l63.50 is tested.
2-) Neutral (20%) - this is a very low volatile scenario and best to avoid trading. Only go for great opportunities and smaller profit targets.
3-) Bullish (10%)- Unlike to happen cause market has moved up too much. Even if the 160.00 is tested, do not get long for bigger profits. Market needs to rest first before making a new strong up move.
4-) Bearish (20%) - This scenario would be a development from scenario #1 and have bearish implications meaning the break up of the down trend was a fake one and the down trend will continue. If this happens favor short trades.

Long Term Bias: Neutral Bullish
Short Term Bias: Bearish

Updated at 7:35

Read this before using the information provided in this page:
1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk.2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The morning sheet will be updated between 8:00 and 9:00
No comments:

Daily AM Prep - July, 09

** Preparation for Morning Session**

MARKET CONDITIONS

World Markets News: Asian markets finished broadly higher today with shares in Japan leading the region. European markets are higher today with shares in London leading the region.

Economic Calendar


SPY - Gap up yesterday and did not move much from there. Low volatile day testing the long term down trend line. Where it go from here is very important: will the sellers take over and the down trend re-start or the buyers keep controlling the market put it into a more neutral state?
1-) Bullish (40%) - World markets on the green and the break of yesterday´s high could put market into an up momentum. Volume need to step in for the break of the down trend.
2-) Bearish (40%) - The short term up trend needs to be broken first, but for the market to confirm the down trend being re-taken need to go below 162.25. Otherwise, this could be just a pull back from the range break up.
3-) Neutral (20%) - dont´believe much that this will happen. This scenario also contemplates the possibility of the market trying to close the previous gap and going back above the 163.50 level.


Long Term Bias: Bearish
Short Term Bias: Bullish 

Updated at 7:15

Read this before using the information provided in this page:
1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk.2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The morning sheet will be updated between 8:00 and 9:00
No comments:

Daily AM Prep - July, 08

** Preparation for Morning Session**

MARKET CONDITIONS

World Markets News: Asian markets finished sharply lower today with shares in China leading the region. European markets are broadly higher today with shares in Germany leading the region.

  • 08:30 and 9:30 - ECB President Draghi Speaks

Economic Calendar



SPY - Has broken the short term range to the up side and it is likely to continue this away to test the longer term down trend.
1-) Bullish (40%) - If it continues moving higher, the longer term down trend is likely to attract sellers. Be careful around the 164.00 level with opened positions on the long side. Keep a tight stop. After the test have to re-evaluate.
2-) Bearish (40%) - If prices get back below 162.25, then most this would be a fake break up, meaning prices are likely to break to the down side of the range (if buyers don´t hold prices again). The longer term down trend will help push prices down. Favor short trades and longer targets.
3-) Neutral (20%) - After the break of the range, this scenario is unlikely, but if happens could have bullish implications. The longer it trades above the 162.25 level, the likely this value will be accepted and this could go on this it test the longer term trend. Since it is a low volatile scenario, stay away from big trades and take profits faster.

Long Term Bias: Bearish
Short Term Bias: Bullish

Updated at 7:30

Read this before using the information provided in this page:
1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk.2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The morning sheet will be updated between 8:00 and 9:00
No comments:

Daily AM Prep - July, 05

** Preparation for Morning Session**

MARKET CONDITIONS

World Markets News: Asian markets finished broadly higher today with shares in Japan leading the region. European markets are mixed. The FTSE 100 is higher by 0.47%, while the DAX is leading the CAC 40 lower.
  • 08:30 - Nonfarm Payrolls - Bearish expectation
  • 08:30 - Unemployment Rate - Bullish expectation
Economic Calendar


SPY - Market is moving inside a range between 160.25 | 162.25. Not many clues of where it should move next.
1-) Neutral (36%) - the only reason this scenario has a  greater chance of happening is because today is Friday and markets tend to move less. Play long and short trades, favoring trades at the extreme of the the range.
2-) Bullish (32%) - The break up would suggests a 2 point move, but the longer down trend line is likely to hold this move. Play the long trades, but take profits if the trend line starts to hold price.
3-) Bearish (32%) - As the bullish scenario, the break down also suggests a 2 point move. Since the longer trend is down, this 2 point down move has a cleaner path to achieve this goal. A "pit stop" at 159.25 is possible, but need to evaluate the break to determine that. Favor short trades.

Long Term Bias: Bearish
Short Term Bias: Neutral

Updated at 7:50

Read this before using the information provided in this page:
1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk.2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The morning sheet will be updated between 8:00 and 9:00
No comments:

Daily AM Prep - July, 03

** Preparation for Morning Session**

MARKET CONDITIONS

World Markets News: Asian markets finished broadly lower today with shares in Hong Kong leading the region. European markets are sharply lower today with shares in France off the most. 

  • Holiday - United States - The Day Before Independence Day - Early close at 13:00
  • 08:15 - ADP Nonfarm Employment Change - Bullish Expectation
  • 08:30 - Initial Jobless Claims - Neutral expectation


Economic Calendar



SPY - Second time market try to move higher in the morning and fail to hold. World markets are all red and the SPY should follow.
1-) Bearish (50%) - If market start trading below 160.25 and holding, it should continue lower. The 159.25 level could provide some support for the down move, but I believe this will be only a "pit stop". The expected down move would be a 2 point drop (size of the range). If test the 159.25 and goes back above 160.25, then scenario is change and re-evaluate. Favor short positions.
2-) Neutral (25%) - Market staying inside the 160.25 | 162.25 range is possible and could mean it is gathering the strength to break the down trend. Could play both sides (longs / shorts)
3-) Bullish (25%) - This is the path with most resistance. Prices has not been holding higher in the afternoon, and this show weakness. The longer it takes to close the gap, the closer the down trend get´s pressuring prices down. If start trading above 162.25, go for long trades, but keep shorter targets.

Long Term Bias: Bearish
Short Term Bias: Bearish

Updated at 7:20

Read this before using the information provided in this page:
1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk.2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The morning sheet will be updated between 8:00 and 9:00
No comments:

Daily AM Prep - July, 02

** Preparation for Morning Session**

MARKET CONDITIONS

World Markets News: Asian markets finished mixed as of the most recent closing prices.  European markets are lower today with shares in Germany off the most.

Economic Calendar



SPY - Yesterday market traded above the 161.50 level in the morning, but did not manage to hold above it in the afternoon. World markets are red and in Europe, Germany is leading the down move. If this is to be just a pull back, the up move must begin in the morning, with prices holding above the 161.50 level.
1-) Neutral Bearish (35%)- Market will trade down, breaking the up trend and holding at the 160.25. From there the expectation is for it to pull back and then continue the down move, but re-evaluation is good. A sideways move from this point into a smaller time-frame range is possible. Favor short trades, but could reverse.
2-) Bearish (20%) - Market breaks the down trend and don´t find a support at the 160.25 level, meaning it is really weak. Trade only on the short side.
3-) Neutral (20%) - if market decides to stay neutral for today, then could be building strength to break up. This would not be a very good trading scenario. Take profits fast cause volatility could be very small.
4-) Bullish (25%)- meaning yesterday afternoon´s movement was just a pull back and market would continue the up move. For this to happen it has to hold above the 161.50 level and then 162.25 level.

Long Term Bias: Bearish
Short Term Bias: Neutral Bearish

Accuracy:

AM Stock Selection Sheet download
Updated at 7:45

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Read this before using the information provided in this page:
1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk.2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The morning sheet will be updated between 8:00 and 9:00
No comments:

Trade Review - NKE - July, 01

Stock Selection Information

No relevant news on the stock. It had it´s earnings released on Friday morning or Thursday afternoon and it was in play (2nd day play). Stock had a bad reaction to the released, but recovered during the day. Today I was going for the follow up on that recovery.



Watch List Reason - 2nd day play
Pre-Market Volume - None
Trading Plan - Go long above 64.00

Management

Entry Setup used: Open range break up


Trading Comments

The level I was watching was 64.00. Market test it twice before actually moving. Could see some buyers on the tape and the Open Range formation I like to trade. As it was breaking the range up, I joined the buyers. It took 2 trades before the stock start moving up.
Market was overall strong, which helps long position. Reading which way it was moving and if it was following the expected scenario helped to find the entry/exit spots.

Evaluation

It was a good trade and well managed. The problem after that was to stick to the stock (that was moving higher) and take the other trade entries it was giving me. Besides that, it was a good trade. 
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