Daily AM Prep - July, 08

** Preparation for Morning Session**

MARKET CONDITIONS

World Markets News: Asian markets finished sharply lower today with shares in China leading the region. European markets are broadly higher today with shares in Germany leading the region.

  • 08:30 and 9:30 - ECB President Draghi Speaks

Economic Calendar



SPY - Has broken the short term range to the up side and it is likely to continue this away to test the longer term down trend.
1-) Bullish (40%) - If it continues moving higher, the longer term down trend is likely to attract sellers. Be careful around the 164.00 level with opened positions on the long side. Keep a tight stop. After the test have to re-evaluate.
2-) Bearish (40%) - If prices get back below 162.25, then most this would be a fake break up, meaning prices are likely to break to the down side of the range (if buyers don´t hold prices again). The longer term down trend will help push prices down. Favor short trades and longer targets.
3-) Neutral (20%) - After the break of the range, this scenario is unlikely, but if happens could have bullish implications. The longer it trades above the 162.25 level, the likely this value will be accepted and this could go on this it test the longer term trend. Since it is a low volatile scenario, stay away from big trades and take profits faster.

Long Term Bias: Bearish
Short Term Bias: Bullish

Updated at 7:30

Read this before using the information provided in this page:
1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk.2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The morning sheet will be updated between 8:00 and 9:00
No comments:

Daily AM Prep - July, 05

** Preparation for Morning Session**

MARKET CONDITIONS

World Markets News: Asian markets finished broadly higher today with shares in Japan leading the region. European markets are mixed. The FTSE 100 is higher by 0.47%, while the DAX is leading the CAC 40 lower.
  • 08:30 - Nonfarm Payrolls - Bearish expectation
  • 08:30 - Unemployment Rate - Bullish expectation
Economic Calendar


SPY - Market is moving inside a range between 160.25 | 162.25. Not many clues of where it should move next.
1-) Neutral (36%) - the only reason this scenario has a  greater chance of happening is because today is Friday and markets tend to move less. Play long and short trades, favoring trades at the extreme of the the range.
2-) Bullish (32%) - The break up would suggests a 2 point move, but the longer down trend line is likely to hold this move. Play the long trades, but take profits if the trend line starts to hold price.
3-) Bearish (32%) - As the bullish scenario, the break down also suggests a 2 point move. Since the longer trend is down, this 2 point down move has a cleaner path to achieve this goal. A "pit stop" at 159.25 is possible, but need to evaluate the break to determine that. Favor short trades.

Long Term Bias: Bearish
Short Term Bias: Neutral

Updated at 7:50

Read this before using the information provided in this page:
1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk.2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The morning sheet will be updated between 8:00 and 9:00
No comments:

Daily AM Prep - July, 03

** Preparation for Morning Session**

MARKET CONDITIONS

World Markets News: Asian markets finished broadly lower today with shares in Hong Kong leading the region. European markets are sharply lower today with shares in France off the most. 

  • Holiday - United States - The Day Before Independence Day - Early close at 13:00
  • 08:15 - ADP Nonfarm Employment Change - Bullish Expectation
  • 08:30 - Initial Jobless Claims - Neutral expectation


Economic Calendar



SPY - Second time market try to move higher in the morning and fail to hold. World markets are all red and the SPY should follow.
1-) Bearish (50%) - If market start trading below 160.25 and holding, it should continue lower. The 159.25 level could provide some support for the down move, but I believe this will be only a "pit stop". The expected down move would be a 2 point drop (size of the range). If test the 159.25 and goes back above 160.25, then scenario is change and re-evaluate. Favor short positions.
2-) Neutral (25%) - Market staying inside the 160.25 | 162.25 range is possible and could mean it is gathering the strength to break the down trend. Could play both sides (longs / shorts)
3-) Bullish (25%) - This is the path with most resistance. Prices has not been holding higher in the afternoon, and this show weakness. The longer it takes to close the gap, the closer the down trend get´s pressuring prices down. If start trading above 162.25, go for long trades, but keep shorter targets.

Long Term Bias: Bearish
Short Term Bias: Bearish

Updated at 7:20

Read this before using the information provided in this page:
1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk.2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The morning sheet will be updated between 8:00 and 9:00
No comments:

Daily AM Prep - July, 02

** Preparation for Morning Session**

MARKET CONDITIONS

World Markets News: Asian markets finished mixed as of the most recent closing prices.  European markets are lower today with shares in Germany off the most.

Economic Calendar



SPY - Yesterday market traded above the 161.50 level in the morning, but did not manage to hold above it in the afternoon. World markets are red and in Europe, Germany is leading the down move. If this is to be just a pull back, the up move must begin in the morning, with prices holding above the 161.50 level.
1-) Neutral Bearish (35%)- Market will trade down, breaking the up trend and holding at the 160.25. From there the expectation is for it to pull back and then continue the down move, but re-evaluation is good. A sideways move from this point into a smaller time-frame range is possible. Favor short trades, but could reverse.
2-) Bearish (20%) - Market breaks the down trend and don´t find a support at the 160.25 level, meaning it is really weak. Trade only on the short side.
3-) Neutral (20%) - if market decides to stay neutral for today, then could be building strength to break up. This would not be a very good trading scenario. Take profits fast cause volatility could be very small.
4-) Bullish (25%)- meaning yesterday afternoon´s movement was just a pull back and market would continue the up move. For this to happen it has to hold above the 161.50 level and then 162.25 level.

Long Term Bias: Bearish
Short Term Bias: Neutral Bearish

Accuracy:

AM Stock Selection Sheet download
Updated at 7:45

Want more information about the Stock Selection Sheet?
Legends - Click me
Read this before using the information provided in this page:
1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk.2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The morning sheet will be updated between 8:00 and 9:00
No comments:

Trade Review - NKE - July, 01

Stock Selection Information

No relevant news on the stock. It had it´s earnings released on Friday morning or Thursday afternoon and it was in play (2nd day play). Stock had a bad reaction to the released, but recovered during the day. Today I was going for the follow up on that recovery.



Watch List Reason - 2nd day play
Pre-Market Volume - None
Trading Plan - Go long above 64.00

Management

Entry Setup used: Open range break up


Trading Comments

The level I was watching was 64.00. Market test it twice before actually moving. Could see some buyers on the tape and the Open Range formation I like to trade. As it was breaking the range up, I joined the buyers. It took 2 trades before the stock start moving up.
Market was overall strong, which helps long position. Reading which way it was moving and if it was following the expected scenario helped to find the entry/exit spots.

Evaluation

It was a good trade and well managed. The problem after that was to stick to the stock (that was moving higher) and take the other trade entries it was giving me. Besides that, it was a good trade. 
No comments:

Daily AM Prep - July, 01

** Preparation for Morning Session**

MARKET CONDITIONS

World Markets News: Asian markets finished broadly higher today with shares in Hong Kong leading the region. European markets are higher today with shares in London leading the region.

  • 10:00 - ISM Manufacturing Index - Bullish expected
  • Holidays: Canada and Hong Kong

Economic Calendar



SPY - World markets are on the green. Spy had a sideways consolidation during last session, closing the gap up of previous day. Notice the volume decreased in this up move.
1-) Neutral (33%) - Monday morning usually is a low session so the continuation of the sideways move is a possible movement for today. The range limitations are 161.50 and 160.00. If market start trading outside the range, move into the other scenarios. If volatility is very low, do not trade.
2-) Bullish (33%) - If start trading above 161.50 a gap fill is possible and the first resistance is the 163.00 level, followed by the long term down trend. Trade on the long side, but be careful when the resistances are reached.
3-) Bearish (33%) - The down move would come into play if start trading below 160.00, but a close support at 159.25 could cause prices to move back up. If not the down trend would continues and a new trend down line could come into play. Favor short trades.

Long Term Bias: Bearish
Short Term Bias: Neutral
Accuracy:

AM Stock Selection Sheet download
Updated at 7:40

Want more information about the Stock Selection Sheet?
Legends - Click me
Read this before using the information provided in this page:
1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk.2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The morning sheet will be updated between 8:00 and 9:00
No comments:

Daily PM Prep - June, 28

** Preparation for Closing Session **

MARKET CONDITIONS



SPY - Moved into expected scenario #2 from morning preparation, which favored short trades. Likely to stay inside the 160 / 161.50 range today.
1-) Neutral (50%) - since it´s Friday, the expectation is for market to trade between the 160.00 and 161.50 levels till the close.
2-) Bearish (30%) - If the low of the day is taken out, it could move to next support level at 159.50. Would be good to trade on the short side, but would not much room. Watch as it get´s close to the 159.25 level to see if can break below.
3-) Bullish (20%) - If it take the high of the previous day and hold above, then it would move into this scenario which would favor long trades.
Long Term Bias: Bearish
Short Term Bias: Neutral
Accuracy: 

PM Stock Selection Sheet download
Updated at 12:30

Want more information about the Stock Selection Sheet?
Legends - Click me
Read this before using the information provided in this page:
1.Educational purpose material only. Use this information at your own risk. 2.Stocks may be added to the selection sheet at any time. They are used as a guide to select which stocks I will trade and set alerts . It does not mean that I follow all of them, that would be crazy.3.The Accuracy information is for my own use only. It is reviewed after I am done trading. This is just a way for me to measure how is my reading of the market and my confidence in it. I suggest you develop your own way to do this.4.The afternoon sheet will be updated between 13:00 and 14:00
No comments:
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